Introduction
Monday’s session is shaking off last week’s post-payroll angst. By 12:30 p.m. ET the S&P 500 is up +1.37 % to 6,323.42, the Dow industrials gain +1.27 % to 44,140.90 and the Nasdaq Composite advances +1.82 % to 21,026.44, according to Monexa AI price feeds. A sharp retreat in implied volatility—the CBOE VIX is down ‑12.37 %—underpins the risk bid even as soft factory-order data and lingering policy uncertainty cloud the macro backdrop.
Market Overview#
Intraday Indices Table & Commentary#
| Ticker | Current Price | Price Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ^SPX | 6,323.42 | +85.42 | +1.37 % |
| ^DJI | 44,140.90 | +552.31 | +1.27 % |
| ^IXIC | 21,026.44 | +376.30 | +1.82 % |
| ^NYA | 20,462.96 | +195.28 | +0.96 % |
| ^RVX | 24.64 | ‑2.28 | -8.47 % |
| ^VIX | 17.86 | ‑2.52 | -12.37 % |
The tone flipped positive almost from the opening bell: traders leaned into Friday’s bond rally—yields are another 4–6 bps lower across the belly—on the view that a softer labor market offsets tariff risk. Lower rates in turn reignited the mega-cap growth trade. Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet each add about 70 pts of upside to the S&P, but the day’s real pulse sits in mid-cap software and life-science names.
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Macro Analysis#
Economic Releases & Policy Updates#
A trio of fresh releases reinforced the “growth down, prices steady” narrative. The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index slipped to 107.55 in July, its third sequential decline; new U.S. factory orders fell -4.8 % m/m, well below consensus -2.1 % (Commerce Dept.). Meanwhile, Fed fund futures now price a 58 % chance of a 25 bp cut in September (CME FedWatch), even after Bank of America’s economics team argued this morning that the first trim may not land until 2026.
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The policy cross-currents kept real yields below 1.65 % and pushed the 2-10 curve to ‑39 bps, flirting with a fresh three-week re-inversion. Bloomberg cites a 6 % slide in WTI crude since late July as an additional dis-inflationary anchor, although Energy equities are ignoring it for now (see Sector Analysis).
Global / Geopolitical Developments#
Overnight Europe provided a minor tailwind after Brussels chose to delay retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods for six months, easing immediate pressure on trans-Atlantic trade. In Asia, Mark Mobius highlighted “compelling valuations” in Japan, India and Taiwan—a remark that helped stabilize global semiconductors after a bruising Friday.
Sector Analysis#
Sector Performance Table#
| Sector | % Change (Intraday) |
|---|---|
| Utilities | +2.20 % |
| Communication Services | +1.45 % |
| Technology | +1.33 % |
| Basic Materials | +1.32 % |
| Real Estate | +0.79 % |
| Healthcare | +0.73 % |
| Financial Services | +0.37 % |
| Industrials | +0.19 % |
| Energy | -0.04 % |
| Consumer Defensive | -0.13 % |
| Consumer Cyclical | -0.37 % |
Utilities extend last week’s out-performance, consistent with a rotation into cash-flow stability whenever the Fed narrative turns dovish. PG&E (PCG and Constellation Energy (CEG rally more than +4 % each on no company-specific news, implying rate-sensitive bargain-hunting. In Technology, software gains offset an ugly -11 % dive in ON Semiconductor (ON after weak auto-chip guidance, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD pops +3.5 % ahead of tonight’s earnings.
Healthcare is the morning’s star: Idexx Laboratories (IDXX soars +26.3 % after smashing revenue estimates and lifting FY guidance, a move that alone contributes roughly 18 pts to the Nasdaq 100. ResMed (RMD and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ keep the sector bid, helping mask drags from DexCom (DXCM and Moderna (MRNA.
Energy is flat as a board despite softer crude; investors continue to punish leverage, illustrated by Kosmos Energy (KOS (-0.5 %) after an ugly Q2 miss.
Company-Specific Insights#
Midday Earnings or Key Movers#
The macro fog has not stopped companies from delivering idiosyncratic surprises:
Idexx Laboratories (IDXX
Revenue jumped +11 % Y/Y to $1.05 bn, $70 m above the top Street guess (company release). Operating margin expanded 240 bps, allowing EPS to beat by +31 cts. Management attributed strength to companion-animal diagnostics volume, a trend corroborated by channel-check data from Reuters showing vet visits up 6 % in June. The board raised FY EPS guidance by 8 %, helping justify the stock’s premium 48× forward P/E.
ON Semiconductor (ON
Shares crater as the company guides Q3 EPS to $0.63–0.78, well below the $1.05 consensus, citing “broad softening” in EV and industrial demand. Gross-margin guidance compressed 430 bps Q/Q to 38 %, reigniting fears that 2022’s supply-tightness tailwind has fully normalized.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B
The conglomerate sheds -3.0 % despite reporting a modest top-line beat over the weekend. Q2 operating EPS of $5,137 missed estimates by almost 32 %, driven largely by underwriting losses at GEICO. Given Berkshire’s outsized index weight, its slump alone subtracts about 14 pts from the Dow, muting industrials’ otherwise constructive tone.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR
With earnings due after the close, the stock is up +4 % and flirting with record highs. Options imply a ±11 % move on results. Jefferies reiterated a Street-high $195 target this morning, citing an expanding pipeline for the company’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP).
Kosmos Energy (KOS
Q2 EPS of -$0.19 missed by 13 cts and revenue fell -11 % short. Leverage at 2.6× EBITDA leaves little room for slip-ups if Brent remains rangebound; the stock’s modest dip suggests most bad news was in the price.
Extended Analysis#
Intraday Shifts & Momentum#
Today’s trade demonstrates the market’s reflexive affection for lower rates. Friday’s weaker jobs print—coupled with President Trump’s dismissal of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer—triggered a textbook duration rally. When the 10-year slipped beneath 4.05 % in early futures trading, equity desk chatter turned from “stag-flation scare” to “Goldilocks redux.” That pivot explains why cyclical defensives like Utilities and Real Estate caught a bid alongside high-beta software.
Still, the rally is far from indiscriminate. The equal-weight S&P adds just +0.8 %, half the cap-weight gain. That dispersion widens when you drill into sub-industries: semiconductors trade like a bifurcated tape, with AI-levered names (AMD, MPWR surging and auto-linked fabs (ON, MCHP slipping. Similar schisms appear in Consumer Cyclicals, where Williams-Sonoma (WSM pops +5.6 % on home-goods momentum while Amazon (AMZN eases on margin skittishness.
Breadth data confirm the nuance: 68 % of NYSE issues are higher versus 81 % down at Friday’s close, yet only 49 % are above their 20-day moving average, underlining how quickly leadership narrows once rate optimism fades.
From a volatility lens, the -2.5-point plunge in VIX to 17.8 is instructive. The spot measure now trades 1.5 vol points under the one-month VIX futures—a re-inversion that suggests traders feel comfortable selling front-month premium even as the calendar flips to historically choppier late August. That complacency faces a clear catalyst gauntlet: CPI on the 13th, Jackson Hole on the 22nd and a Fed meeting that grows more contentious by the day. Put-skew has ticked up to 0.46 delta across S&P 30-day expiries, hinting that hedgers prefer outright downside bets over strangles.
In credit, CDX IG tightens 2 bps to 64 bps, its lowest since June 24, indicating little systemic worry. High-yield index OAS narrows 6 bps, but primary issuance remains subdued: only three deals on today’s calendar, led by a $900 m two-parter from Vistra (VST.
Conclusion#
Midday Recap & Afternoon Outlook#
By lunchtime Wall Street is leaning risk-on, lifted by tech and healthcare momentum and abetted by a volatility crush. Soft macro prints keep hopes for looser policy alive, yet macro clarity remains elusive: the Fed’s own speakers are split on whether cuts start in September or much later, while tariff headlines swing from punitive to conciliatory by the hour.
Into the close traders will fixate on tonight’s heavyweight earnings docket—Palantir, AMD and Aflac—along with any surprise remarks from the Fed’s Thomas Barkin, slated for 2:15 p.m. Should PLTR or AMD print even a modest top-line beat, the FOMO bid in AI-themed winners could extend the afternoon rally. Conversely, another guidance shock such as ON’s would likely revive index chop, especially with the S&P eyeing the 6,300–6,330 congestion zone that capped two of the last three sessions.
Key Takeaways
- Lower rates trump weak data—at least for now—fueling a broad-based equity rebound.
- Sector leadership is narrow: Utilities and Healthcare join long-standing Tech strength, while Energy and Consumer Defensive stall.
- Stock-specific dispersion remains elevated; earnings beats (IDXX) and misses (ON) are rewarded or punished aggressively.
- Volatility sellers are back, but the calendar is loaded with event risk that could re-inflate VIX quickly.
- Afternoon direction hinges on after-hours tech earnings; upside through S&P 6,330 likely requires a clean sweep of AI optimism.