Midday Market Update: Risk-On Rebound Led by Chips and Cyclicals

Introduction#

U.S. equities are staging a broad risk-on rebound into midday Friday, February 6, 2026, with major indices advancing from a strong open as leadership rotates back into semiconductors and economically sensitive groups. According to Monexa AI’s midday tape, the S&P 500 is up solidly after gapping higher at the open, the Dow is printing fresh highs, and the Nasdaq Composite is outperforming as chipmakers recover ground following this week’s tech-led drawdowns. The move is occurring alongside a sharp intraday collapse in equity volatility, a constructive early read on consumer sentiment, and selective corporate catalysts that are driving pronounced single-stock dispersion. External market wraps have also flagged the rebound in large-cap benchmarks following a volatile week for technology and crypto-linked equities, reinforcing today’s “risk-on” tone (Reuters.

The morning narrative is not one-dimensional. The rally is concentrated in a handful of very large semiconductor and AI-infrastructure bellwethers, while megacap communication platforms lag and one large consumer-internet name is under pressure on capex headlines. According to Monexa AI’s heatmap, heavyweights NVDA, AVGO, and AMD are powering the recovery, while GOOGL/GOOG and META trade lower and AMZN is a notable drag. That mix is leaving sector performance uneven beneath the headline gains and keeping concentration risk front-of-mind into the afternoon session.

Market Overview#

Intraday Indices Table & Commentary#

Monexa AI’s intraday data show the S&P 500 (^SPX) climbing to 6,905.34, up +1.57% from the prior close, after opening at 6,816.74 and pushing toward the session high of 6,908.44. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) is stronger at 49,884.70, up +2.00%, having tagged a new year high of 49,909.48 intraday. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) is higher by +1.84% to 22,954.46, near its session high, as buyers step back into semiconductors and AI-adjacent hardware. The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) has collapsed -17.68% to 17.92, and the Russell 2000 implied volatility gauge (^RVX) is down -10.08% to 23.81, signaling a rapid reset in near-term hedging demand as indices firm.

The early run has been led by outsized gains in a narrow cadre of AI and chip leaders—Monexa AI highlights NVDA (+6.58%), AVGO (+6.71%), AMD (+7.46%), and server- OEM SMCI (+9.40%)—offset by weakness in megacap platforms within Communication Services, where GOOGL/GOOG are off roughly -2.80% and META is lower by -2.26%. The divergence underscores that while breadth has improved across cyclicals and select defensives, the day’s advance is still dependent on a handful of very large AI beneficiaries.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Releases & Policy Updates#

According to Monexa AI, the preliminary February University of Michigan survey indicates consumer sentiment improved to 57.3, a constructive read-through for household confidence after recent volatility in risk assets. Importantly, Monexa AI’s news feed also notes a “notable downtick” in the survey’s inflation expectations component, an incremental positive for the Federal Reserve’s disinflation narrative. This pairing—firmer sentiment and easing inflation expectations—has coincided with today’s slide in equity volatility and the outperformance of rate-sensitive groups such as Real Estate and Utilities at midday. For broader policy context, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated the importance of re-anchoring inflation at 2% in televised remarks, consistent with the Fed’s patient stance into 2026 (Bloomberg.

Markets are also digesting a busy near-term macro calendar. Monexa AI highlights that delayed U.S. jobs and inflation releases remain the key watch items for rates and risk assets over the coming sessions, with global data in Europe and the U.K. also in focus for cross-asset spillovers (Financial Times. Given the crosscurrents, today’s equity strength appears more tied to micro and positioning dynamics than to any single macro data surprise.

Global/Geopolitical Developments#

Overnight and morning flows into AI infrastructure narratives are again front and center. Monexa AI’s company feed flags headline estimates that Big Tech plans to devote hundreds of billions of dollars to AI capex in 2026, with one item pegging aggregate hyperscaler outlays at roughly $650 billion this year, and a separate item highlighting AMZN’s 2026 capex plan of $200 billion. These figures are directional rather than definitive at this stage, but they have weighed on AMZN shares intraday and supported a reflexive bid in chip suppliers and AI hardware names that are direct beneficiaries of data-center buildouts (Financial Times. Geopolitical sensitivities around semiconductor supply chains, export controls, and foundry capacity also remain a medium-term backdrop investors are tracking, even if these themes are not the proximate catalyst for today’s move (Reuters.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

Monexa AI’s sector model shows broad midday gains led by Real Estate (+1.99%) and Utilities (+1.98%), consistent with falling implied volatility and a bid for duration-sensitive exposures. Healthcare (+1.52%), Industrials (+1.35%), Consumer Defensive (+1.33%), and Financial Services (+1.20%) are all positive, reflecting cyclical rotation and a preference for earnings visibility after recent tech-driven volatility. Technology is higher (+0.81%) on the back of strong megacap semiconductor leadership, while Consumer Cyclical (+0.76%) lags the tape due to pronounced weakness in AMZN. Communication Services (-0.30%) is negative intraday, with GOOGL/GOOG and META lower on profit taking.

There is a material discrepancy to flag. Monexa AI’s heatmap—built from a cap-weighted and top-mover lens—shows Basic Materials and Energy printing strong breadth with outsized individual winners (e.g., NEM +5.53%, ALB +3.86%, FCX +2.84%; XOM +1.90%, SLB +2.56%) and merchant-power Utilities rallying (e.g., CEG +6.06%, VST +4.96%). By contrast, the sector-performance table above, which aggregates at the GICS sector level across a broader universe, shows Basic Materials (-0.56%) and Energy (-0.53%) modestly lower and Utilities (+1.98%) broadly strong. The divergence likely reflects methodology and time-sampling differences—cap-weighted gains in a handful of large components can dominate a heatmap read, while a sector model may capture laggards within the same group. For portfolio decisions today, we prioritize the verified index- and sector-level returns for sizing, while using the heatmap to identify idiosyncratic opportunities and risks within each sleeve.

Beyond the tables, Monexa AI’s heatmap highlights several notable sub-sector dynamics. Semiconductors and AI infrastructure are the day’s clear leaders, with NVDA, AVGO, AMD, and SMCI pacing gains. Airlines and heavy equipment within Industrials are surging—UAL (+9.37%), DAL (+7.56%), CAT (~+6.00%), and GE (+4.70%)—which complements strength in aggregates and building materials (CRH +3.57%, VMC +3.45%). In Consumer areas, staples leaders including WMT (+2.60%) and TGT (+4.20%) are up, while restaurants and travel-experience names show momentum (CMG +3.95%, cruise operators 5–6% higher). Offsetting these, Communication Services is pressured by platform mega-caps and select media names, and clean-energy solar is notably weak with FSLR down -7.34%.

Company-Specific Insights#

Midday Earnings or Key Movers#

The single-stock tape is event-driven with large dispersion. According to Monexa AI, managed care and medtech are mixed after significant idiosyncratic headlines. MOH is sharply lower (-28.39%), weighing on Healthcare internals, even as large-cap biopharma stabilizes with LLY (+2.64%) and ABBV (+2.53%), and diversified managed care UNH gains (+2.93%).

Earnings are a major driver of today’s stock-specific moves:

In Healthcare services, Centene CNC reported a Q4 adjusted loss per share of -$1.19 on revenue of $49.73 billion, ahead of consensus on the top line but with a sharply higher consolidated health benefits ratio (HBR) of 94.3% and an elevated Commercial HBR of 95.4%. Shares are down more than -6% intraday as investors weigh cost pressure in the Commercial segment, per Monexa AI’s earnings brief.

In Autos retail, AutoNation AN posted adjusted EPS of $5.08 versus $4.91 expected on revenue of $6.9 billion, a -4% year-on-year decline. Despite softer new-vehicle unit sales (-10.2% same-store), intra-day the stock is rallying over +9% as the company highlighted resilient profitability and capital returns, according to Monexa AI.

In Biotech, BIIB beat with Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.99 (vs. $1.61 expected) on $2.28 billion in revenue and offered an upbeat 2026 profit outlook. Growth products showed healthy traction, including LEQEMBI in-market sales at approximately $134 million. Shares are up over +3% midday, per Monexa AI.

In Tobacco, Philip Morris PM delivered Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.70 (in line) on $10.4 billion in revenue (slightly above $10.39 billion). Smoke-free volumes rose +8.5% while cigarette volumes declined -2.2%. Shares are up more than +1% intraday, according to Monexa AI.

In Apparel, Under Armour UAA surprised positively with EPS of $0.09 against an expected -$0.02 and raised full-year profit guidance. Despite a -6% revenue decline on a currency-neutral basis, shares are surging over +11% as investors reward execution against tempered expectations, per Monexa AI.

In Consumer products, Newell Brands NWL printed Q4 normalized EPS of $0.18 (in line) on $1.9 billion in revenue (slightly above consensus), but issued a cautious 2026 outlook with core sales seen between -2% and flat. The tempered guide is constraining follow-through, based on Monexa AI’s read of midday trading.

In Exchanges/Fintech, MarketAxess MKTX topped EPS at $2.52 but missed slightly on revenue at $209.4 million. Strong balance-sheet quality (low leverage) is a support, though the tape’s risk-on tone is favoring higher-beta financials, including crypto-exposed platforms.

In Payments/BNPL, Affirm AFRM remains volatile after a price-target trim at RBC Capital to $77 (Sector Perform). Shares are down approximately -3.68% intraday at $57.24, per Monexa AI. Elsewhere in Industrials, Goldman Sachs set a $32 target on Kennametal KMT, implying downside versus current levels; the stock is trading around $40.50 midday (+5.80%), reflecting event-driven volatility.

Real Estate investment trusts with data-center exposure are bid, consistent with the AI-infrastructure theme. Digital Realty DLR has a reiterated Hold at Cowen with a lifted target ($185) and an approximate market cap of $56.6 billion. Price action is positive intraday, according to Monexa AI, mirroring strength in EQIX and specialty REIT IRM.

The tech leadership story has a notable exception in Communication Services. Platform names are broadly lower with GOOGL/GOOG and META under pressure as the market digests heavy AI-capex messaging and shifting monetization debates, while DIS trades firmer (+2.79%) on company-specific optimism, per Monexa AI.

Crypto-tied equities are catching a bid as risk appetite improves. Retail brokerage HOOD is up +14.76% and crypto exchange COIN is +10.26% intraday, according to Monexa AI’s heatmap, echoing the high-beta tenor of today’s bounce.

Extended Analysis#

Intraday Shifts & Momentum#

The session’s microstructure speaks to a positioning and catalyst-led rebound from a difficult stretch for software and select AI-adjacent names. Monexa AI’s intraday indices data show the S&P 500 opening at 6,816.74 and advancing nearly 90 points to midday, while the Dow printed a new year high and the Nasdaq regained upside momentum in lockstep with semis. The volatility complex corroborates the shift: the VIX gapped lower from an open at 21.24 to 17.92 by midday (-17.68%), and the Russell 2000’s implied volatility (^RVX) fell -10.08% to 23.81, signaling rapidly easing demand for index-level protection as price action stabilized.

Beneath the index-level advance, leadership is concentrated. According to Monexa AI’s heatmap, a handful of AI and semiconductor names account for an outsized share of the incremental market-cap gains today—NVDA, AVGO, AMD, and SMCI. That concentration cuts both ways. It provides durable index support so long as the AI-capex narrative holds, but it also leaves indices sensitive to even modest pullbacks in these leaders. Offsetting this, cyclicals are participating in a way that improves the tape’s quality of breadth: Industrials are firmly higher, and basic materials and travel/leisure pockets are strong in Monexa AI’s top-mover data.

There are also distinct idiosyncratic shock absorbers working within sectors. Communication Services is weighed down by GOOGL/GOOG and META, but DIS and select media names are higher, limiting sector-level damage. Consumer Cyclical is hampered by AMZN on the $200 billion 2026 capex headline flagged in Monexa AI’s company feed, yet auto, restaurants, and travel are firm. Healthcare looks constructive at the megacap level despite MOH’s steep drop creating statistical noise in the group return. Energy’s internal picture is mixed, with oil majors and services up in Monexa AI’s movers list while solar lags, consistent with recent underperformance in clean-tech subsectors.

One additional nuance today is the behavior of defensives. Utilities as a sector are firmly positive in Monexa AI’s sector model, but the heatmap shows the outperformance concentrated in merchant and generation names (CEG, NRG, VST, while regulated utilities such as NEE and SO are more mixed to lower. That split suggests investors are expressing a barbell: adding growth-adjacent utilities levered to power demand growth from AI data centers, while trimming rate-sensitive, slower-growth regulated peers.

From open to midday, the market’s factor mix also evolved. Early strength in quality growth was quickly joined by high beta and cyclicals as volatility collapsed. Financials participation broadened from money-center banks—JPM (+4.01%), BAC (+2.70%)—to trading and retail/crypto proxies (COIN, HOOD, reflecting a classic “all clear” intraday momentum shift rather than a single macro driver.

Against this backdrop, investors should remain mindful of data quality and methodology differences. As noted above, Monexa AI’s sector-performance table and heatmap can diverge intraday due to weighting and timing; reconciling the two suggests that while Energy and Materials breadth looks better under a top-mover lens, the average stock in those sectors may be lagging. Practically, that argues for selectivity: focus on the names with earnings or structural tailwinds (e.g., merchant power, refiners, miners with commodity support) versus blanket sector exposure.

Conclusion#

Midday Recap & Afternoon Outlook#

By midday, the U.S. equity market backdrop is decisively risk-on: indices are higher across the board, volatility is sharply lower, and leadership has rotated back to semiconductors and cyclicals. According to Monexa AI, the S&P 500 sits at 6,905.34 (+1.57%), roughly 1.38% below its 7,002.28 year high; the Dow is up +2.00% and printed a fresh intraday high near 49,909; and the Nasdaq Composite is +1.84% as large-cap chipmakers extend gains. Sector-wise, Real Estate and Utilities lead in Monexa AI’s sector model, while the heatmap emphasizes strong pockets in Energy, Basic Materials, and merchant-power Utilities. Negative offsets include megacap Communication Services and AMZN on capex headlines.

Macro inputs are a modest tailwind rather than the main driver. The University of Michigan’s preliminary February sentiment improved to 57.3 and inflation expectations ticked lower, which aligns with the VIX’s -17.68% slide to 17.92 by midday. Policy commentary remains steady-state with the Fed focused on its 2% inflation goal. Globally, AI-infrastructure capex themes continue to steer flows, with Monexa AI’s news feed highlighting very large 2026 spend figures across hyperscalers—a bullish underpinning for chip and data-center ecosystems, while simultaneously raising questions about capital intensity at megacap platforms.

Into the afternoon, the focus turns to whether momentum in semiconductor leaders can persist and if breadth can further improve without exacerbating concentration risk. Earnings remain a key catalyst path, with notable intraday reactions across CNC, AN, BIIB, PM, UAA, NWL, and MKTX. For positioning, the intraday setup argues for balance: acknowledge the support provided by AI hardware leaders, but size exposure with an eye to single-name volatility and sector divergences highlighted by Monexa AI’s sector table versus heatmap.

Key takeaways for investors from the morning’s tape are straightforward and data-driven. Concentration risk remains elevated as a handful of AI-related leaders shoulder much of the index advance; single-stock events are producing large tails both ways within sectors, urging selectivity and risk controls; and cyclical participation is improving the quality of the rally even as megacap Communication Services lag. With volatility lower and macro catalysts clustered ahead, the afternoon will likely trade on tape strength in semis, continuing reactions to earnings, and any incremental headlines around hyperscaler capex and data-center supply chains highlighted in Monexa AI’s news flow. For additional context on intraday market conditions and policy commentary referenced here, see coverage from Reuters, Bloomberg, and the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.