Nasdaq Leads As AI Chip Stocks Rally While Dow Slips At Midday

Introduction#

The Tuesday session of July 15 2025 opened on a mixed footing and has only become more bifurcated as the morning progressed. By lunchtime, technology bell-wethers tied to the artificial-intelligence supply chain are the clear winners, while most other sectors bleed lower on renewed inflation anxiety and a notable bond-market sell-off. According to Monexa AI intraday data, the S&P 500 (^SPX) is fractionally lower, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) is firmly in the red, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) has carved out fresh record territory on the back of outsized semiconductor gains.

Market Overview#

Intraday Indices Table & Commentary#

The Nasdaq’s advance owes almost entirely to exuberance surrounding AI-related chipmakers. Reuters notes that the White House’s decision to allow NVDA to resume sales of its H20 GPUs to China triggered a 3.97% pop in midday trading, while AMD jumped 6.37% after Commerce officials restarted reviews for its MI308 license applications. The risk-on mood inside big tech contrasts sharply with a 0.72% Dow slide, pressured by rate-sensitive financials and industrial names.

Bond yields are surging after a soft Treasury auction and headline commentary from former Reagan advisor Art Laffer warning that the Fed’s independence “was a mistake.” The 10-year yield trades near 4.67%, up almost 10 basis points intraday, amplifying concerns that sticky inflation will keep policy tighter for longer. The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) remains subdued at 17.10, indicating that, for now, equity investors are happy to cherry-pick pockets of momentum despite higher yields.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Releases & Policy Updates#

Fresh CPI data hit the tape before the opening bell, showing headline inflation in line with expectations at +0.2% m/m and +3.1% y/y, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That modest beat on core services was overshadowed by a bond-market sell-off that Bloomberg attributes to fears the White House may oust Fed Chair Jerome Powell—an event that could usher in an easier monetary stance and an even hotter inflation backdrop.

At the same time, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick touted a tariff-free trade pact with Indonesia, emphasising that “they pay tariffs here, we don’t pay tariffs there.” Markets greeted the announcement with a shrug; investors appear more fixated on the Fed’s July meeting and whether Chair Powell’s job security erodes further under political pressure.

Global & Geopolitical Developments#

Overnight, Reuters reported Canada’s June CPI accelerated, keeping the Bank of Canada on hold for a third straight meeting. The release adds weight to the theory that North American central banks have entered a “higher-for-longer” regime. Meanwhile, a chorus of former Fed officials—including Randall Kroszner—continues to push back on aggressive rate-cut timelines, arguing that the labour market remains too tight.

The bigger geopolitical swing factor remains U.S.–China tech relations. News that Washington will permit select AI chip exports on a “whitelist” basis has juiced sentiment across Silicon Valley, but simultaneously reopened the broader debate on technology security and export-control policy. That duality—growth upside for specific firms, policy uncertainty for the sector—explains the bifurcated tape.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

Monexa AI heat-map analytics flag a clear flight-to-AI while everything else corrects dynamic. Below are the midday stand-outs:

Technology’s modest index gain masks extreme dispersion. Supermicro surged +6.94%, tightening its leadership in high-density AI servers. NVDA and AMD carry the semiconductor banner, while software names such as FICO slide -3.41%, underscoring valuation fatigue outside hard AI infrastructure.

Financials are under pressure even though early earnings have been respectable. WFC is off -5.88% after management guided for softer net-interest income. By contrast, C trades +3.14% on a clean beat and upbeat expense controls. Asset-manager BLK slumps -5.39%, its largest single-day drawdown in a year, despite crossing $12.5 trillion in AUM—evidence that revenue miss headlines matter more than asset-growth headlines at these multiples.

Energy is the day’s biggest laggard after Utilities. Crude trades near $58.90/bbl, off almost 3%, dragging XOM down -0.75% and shale names like APA lower by -3.19%. Solar standout FSLR bucks the trend, soaring +5.09% as analysts peg rising module demand to AI-driven power needs.

Utilities’ -2.55% dive may surprise given the rate backdrop, yet it highlights how the defensive complex is no longer a sanctuary when long-dated Treasury yields spike. The lone bright spot, AES +2.74%, ties directly to its renewables pipeline and a fresh “buy” note from a sell-side desk emphasising AI data-centre power demand.

Company-Specific Insights#

Midday Earnings & Key Movers#

JPMorgan Chase (JPM reported EPS of $5.24, roughly 16% above consensus, powered by a 15% jump in trading revenue. Yet shares trade -0.73% as questions linger over deposit betas and a still-elevated efficiency ratio. CEO Jamie Dimon reiterated that “consumers are fine” but warned of tariff-driven uncertainties.

Citigroup’s (C 28.9% year-over-year EPS surge to $1.96 is the outlier within financials, aided by reduced credit provisions. Management highlighted strong card spending and a rebound in investment-banking fees. The stock’s +3.14% climb signals investors are willing to pay for cost discipline even amid margin pressure.

Wells Fargo (WFC is today’s poster child for macro sensitivity. Despite the Fed lifting its asset cap in June, shares tumble -5.88% after CFO Mike Santomassimo flagged a deceleration in loan growth tied to commercial real-estate exposure.

On the upgrade front, Morgan Stanley boosted SOLV to Overweight with a $103 target, citing “underappreciated margin upside.” The shares, however, trade flat as midday risk-off flows swamp the healthcare complex.

In energy, EQT and OKE each received price-target bumps, yet the sector’s sloppy tape leaves both marginally lower. Oneok’s strategic push for fee-based earnings and a $92 target from Scotiabank underscores the firm’s capacity to grow regardless of spot gas volatility—an angle worth monitoring once macro headwinds abate.

Extended Analysis#

Intraday Shifts & Momentum#

The first two hours of cash trading saw a textbook rotation into mega-cap growth, buttressed by idiosyncratic catalysts around AI hardware. That bid cooled as bond yields jumped, but Nasdaq dip-buyers remain relentless, suggesting that investors still view AI exposure as a hedge against macro uncertainty rather than a risk asset itself.

Breadth, however, tells a different story. Monexa AI calculations show decliners outnumber advancers on the NYSE by almost 3-to-1, and 86% of S&P 500 constituents trade beneath their intraday VWAP. Said differently, the index level obscures a weakening foundation.

Liquidity may be compounding the divergence. Single-stock call volumes in NVDA and AMD are running 1.6 times their 30-day average, whereas overnight index futures open interest is flat. That pattern—options-driven upside in a handful of names—has historically foreshadowed late-day volatility as market-makers adjust hedges.

From a factor perspective, high-beta and momentum factors are modestly positive, while value and dividend yields print their worst relative performance in four weeks. That regime is consistent with previous mini-cycles where AI optimism trumps cyclical caution, only to flip when macro data deteriorate further.

Conclusion#

Midday Recap & Afternoon Outlook#

At the midpoint, the market narrative remains two-speed: exuberant in pockets tied to the AI compute build-out, yet defensive elsewhere as bond yields march higher and inflation nerves refuse to die. Technology’s leadership has thus far insulated the S&P 500 from the kind of drawdown felt by the Dow, but underlying breadth argues for caution.

Investors heading into the afternoon should watch three catalysts:

1. Treasury auction results at 1 p.m. ET: another weak showing could push yields beyond their morning highs, undermining multiple expansion across growth and value alike.
2. Fed-speak from regional presidents scheduled after 2 p.m. ET: any hint of hawkish resolve in the face of political pressure will test technology’s resilience.
3. Options-related flows into the close: elevated gamma exposure in AI leaders could amplify an up-or-down feedback loop late in the day.

For now, price action suggests a market that still wants to own secular growth themes—especially those tied to tangible AI hardware—while shedding rate-sensitive cyclicals. Whether that preference persists into the close may hinge less on earnings beats and more on the bond market’s verdict on inflation.

Key Takeaways & Implications#

The lunch-hour scorecard is clear: AI hardware remains the market’s north star, but the broader tape looks fragile as rates back up. Traders should consider trimming crowded long tech exposure into strength or, at minimum, pairing it with selective shorts in yield-heavy sectors like utilities and real estate. Medium-term investors may prefer to wait for confirmation that headline CPI moderation can coexist with sticky services inflation before adding to risk.

Either way, the second half of the session promises elevated cross-asset sensitivity—an environment where discipline on position sizing and a close watch on the bond market will be paramount.