Midday Market: Dow leads, utilities surge as tech splits

Friday, October 3, 2025 — Midday Recap

U.S. equities are mixed into lunch as investors recalibrate around softer services data, oil’s weekly slide, and fresh Fed commentary. According to Monexa AI intraday data, the Dow is pacing gains on broad advances in Financials, Industrials, and Utilities, while the NASDAQ trails as software and select AI names sell off against firmer semiconductors and hardware. Volatility is subdued-to-firm with the VIX hovering in the mid‑teens as traders digest the morning’s economic prints and company‑specific headlines.

Market Overview#

Intraday Indices Table & Commentary#

According to Monexa AI, the S&P 500 (^SPX) opened at 6,722.14, tested a session high of 6,750.87, and sits up a modest +0.18% by midday on below‑trend turnover relative to its 20‑day average. The Dow (^DJI) is the standout, up +0.90% after touching a fresh year high at 47,049.64, reflecting strength in rate‑sensitive Utilities and dividend‑heavy constituents. The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) is modestly lower (-0.18%) as dispersion inside Technology persists: chips and hardware are firmer while several high‑beta software/AI names fade. The NYSE Composite (^NYA) tracks the Dow’s tone with +0.85% breadth.

Options sentiment is calm but watchful. The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) edges to 16.68 (+0.30%), and the Russell 2000 Volatility Index (^RVX) is near 22.36 (+0.27%), per Monexa AI. That combination is consistent with a risk‑on skew in cyclicals and yield‑defensives, but not an all‑clear in growth.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Releases & Policy Updates#

The morning’s services data sent a mixed signal. CNBC reports the ISM non‑manufacturing PMI printed at 50.0 vs. 51.7 expected, signaling borderline expansion while reinforcing chatter about “stagflation signals” in the release (CNBC. In contrast, S&P Global’s U.S. services PMI came in at 54.2 vs. 53.9 expected, pointing to a still‑expanding services backdrop (CNBC. With the September nonfarm payrolls report delayed amid government data disruptions, several strategists emphasized that Friday’s ADP snapshot is insufficient to anchor the labor narrative, urging focus on upcoming Fed commentary instead (CNBC.

Fed speak added nuance. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC he’s “a little wary” about cutting rates too quickly given the recent inflation uptick alongside softer payroll trends, describing a “sticky spot” where both sides of the Fed’s mandate show strain (CNBC. Separately, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran reiterated he does not think the neutral rate is zero and flagged that a jump in housing costs would change his inflation view (Bloomberg.

The policy calendar keeps attention on the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting due next week, which bond and FX desks expect to parse for clues on the path of cuts and balance‑sheet messaging (Reuters. For equity investors, today’s takeaway is straightforward: services growth is slowing at the margin, inflation remains sticky enough to keep the Fed cautious, and the data vacuum increases the weight of high‑frequency indicators and corporate guidance for near‑term positioning.

Global/Geopolitical Developments#

Energy markets eased through the week. Oil futures are on pace for their steepest weekly decline in more than three months as oversupply concerns dominated trading ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, according to Reuters (Reuters. That backdrop typically pressures Energy beta, yet U.S. energy equities are modestly higher intraday on selective strength among E&P and refining leaders (see Sector Analysis). In Asia, Japanese equities continue to look through domestic political churn as investors focus on valuations and reform momentum, supporting global risk sentiment at the margin (Barron’s.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

According to Monexa AI sector breadth, Utilities (+2.16%) lead decisively, followed by Financial Services (+0.84%), Energy (+0.58%), Real Estate (+0.48%), and Industrials (+0.33%). That combination reads as a classic “barbell”: yield‑defensives bid higher in a lower‑visibility macro tape while cyclicals participate on improved freight and capex signals. Technology (+0.02%) is net flat but internally split, with semiconductors and select hardware offsetting weakness in portions of software/AI. On the laggard side, Consumer Cyclical (-1.69%) is weighed by gaming and leisure, and Communication Services (-0.98%) is mixed as Alphabet trades steady but broader media/streaming drifts.

There is a notable discrepancy between Monexa AI’s top‑down sector performance table and its intraday heatmap for materials and communications. While the table shows Basic Materials (-0.48%) and Communication Services (-0.98%) lower, the stock‑level heatmap flags outsized gains in miners like FCX and selective strength in cable/media names such as CHTR. We prioritize the aggregate sector return series for the performance table, while using the heatmap to highlight sub‑industry leadership and idiosyncratic movers inside those sectors.

Within Utilities, the leadership is broad. According to Monexa AI quotes, CEG +2.28%, NEE +2.99%, ETR +2.49%, SRE +2.48%, and PNW +2.28% anchor the advance. That buying interest dovetails with the day’s softer services print and persistent uncertainty on the policy path, with yield and defensive cash flows back in favor.

Financials show healthy participation. JPM +1.10% and V +1.69% point to stable credit and resilient spend, while KKR +2.76%, COIN +1.75%, and HOOD +2.19% reflect risk appetite across alternatives and retail flows. Industrials are similarly bid with CAT +2.44%, ODFL +1.91%, JBHT +3.40%, and LUV +2.18% suggesting incremental improvement in freight and travel demand.

Energy’s resilience stands out against the commodity tape. XOM +2.03%, MPC +2.01%, FANG +2.72%, SLB +1.39%, and APA +2.78% are higher intraday even as crude logs a steep weekly decline per Reuters. That mix argues the equity market is emphasizing company‑specific cash returns, capex discipline, and refining margins over day‑to‑day crude volatility.

Healthcare is quietly influential. Managed‑care payers lead with HUM +9.88%, CI +5.40%, ELV +4.27%, and CNC +4.71%, complemented by life‑science tools strength in TMO +3.26%. The magnitude of those payer moves suggests company‑specific catalysts and positioning squeezes rather than macro alone.

Technology remains a tale of two tapes. Semis and hardware are firm with MU +2.32%, ZBRA +4.85%, and FICO +3.73% higher, while selective software/AI is under pressure led by PLTR -6.27% following a security‑risk headline, and equipment maker AMAT -1.94% on fresh China export‑restriction headwinds (see Company‑Specific Insights). Mega‑cap communications are split, with GOOG -0.01% and GOOGL -0.05% near flat, while META -1.64% weighs on ad‑exposed growth.

Consumer‑facing groups are bifurcated. Discretionary weakness is concentrated in gaming and travel/casinos with LVS -6.87% and WYNN -4.94%, while parts of retail and dining are firm, including EBAY +3.26% and CMG +3.24%. In staples, WMT +0.61% and KO +0.98% provide ballast even as PM -3.29% underperforms on idiosyncratic pressures.

Company‑Specific Insights#

Midday Earnings or Key Movers#

The day’s largest single‑name dislocations are corporate‑headline driven. PLTR -6.27% is sliding after reports flagged “very high risk” vulnerabilities in a battlefield communications system co‑developed with Anduril for the U.S. Army. Monexa AI’s newswire compilation cites an internal Army memo characterizing the NGC2 platform’s issues as potentially allowing undetectable access. That’s a material headline for a data/AI defense contractor and is weighing on high‑beta software peers, per Monexa AI.

Semiconductor equipment is softer on policy risk. AMAT -1.94% trades lower after the company disclosed in a regulatory filing that new U.S. export restrictions to China could reduce fiscal‑2026 revenue by roughly $600–$710 million. Multiple outlets highlighted the update Friday morning, adding to an ongoing theme of selective China exposure risk in semi cap‑equipment (Reuters, CNBC. The broader chips complex is more resilient, with MU +2.32% aided by upward earnings‑estimate revisions and positive NAND momentum flagged in recent research flow, according to Monexa AI’s company coverage.

On the positive side of the ledger, clean‑tech and hydrogen are catching a bid. PLUG +33.22% extends a multi‑week rebound after H.C. Wainwright lifted its price target to $7 while reiterating Buy, citing strengthening green hydrogen economics and supportive nuclear policy signals, including long‑dated U.S. capacity targets. Monexa AI notes accelerating data‑center power demand as a tailwind in the thesis. Elsewhere in renewables, SEDG -3.79% remains pressured despite a price‑target lift to $24 at Jefferies, which maintained Underperform and cited execution risks relative to the stock’s YTD rally, per Monexa AI’s broker‑note summary.

In aerospace/defense adjacent tech, RCAT +11.81% jumps on fresh Buy initiation and a $17 target at Needham tied to a multi‑year unmanned systems cycle and the U.S. Army’s Short Range Reconnaissance Tranche 2 opportunity, according to Monexa AI. Logistics is also in focus as SNDR +3.84% climbs on a Stifel upgrade to Buy with a $25 target, citing tighter capacity and improving risk/reward as freight slowly rebalances.

Among mega caps, AMZN -0.87% slips despite Goldman Sachs lifting its price target to $275 and reiterating Buy on a constructive AWS and Advertising outlook, including expectations for AWS to sustain >20% top‑line growth with low‑to‑mid‑30% GAAP EBIT margins into 2026, supported by AI services, the Anthropic partnership, and custom silicon initiatives. While the stock is off today, the thesis underlines where investors will focus into earnings: AWS growth durability and ad margin support (Bloomberg, Monexa AI broker synopses).

Restaurants and retail show selective strength. CMG +3.24% gains following an analyst upgrade and continued focus on operational efficiency and digital engagement, per Monexa AI. EBAY +3.26% adds to retail outperformance, balancing weakness in EVs where TSLA -3.09% drags discretionary beta.

Extended Analysis#

Intraday Shifts & Momentum#

From the bell, the tape leaned defensive as the ISM print hit, knocking early growth enthusiasm and pushing money toward Utilities, Healthcare payers, and high‑quality Financials. As the morning matured, Industrials and Energy extended gains while Communication Services and Consumer Cyclical underperformed. The barbell posture—cyclicals plus yield defensives—has been a hallmark of this session. According to Monexa AI’s heatmap, Utilities and REITs rally alongside Financials and Industrials, signaling that investors are balancing carry/yield with economically sensitive exposure rather than chasing narrow mega‑cap growth.

Under the surface, dispersion remains the story in Technology. The software/AI cohort faced headline risk via PLTR, while semi and hardware leadership came through names like MU and ZBRA. The equipment subsector was dented by AMAT on export restrictions, another reminder that policy remains a key input for supply‑chain‑exposed franchises.

Healthcare’s payer rally is outsized enough to influence index‑level performance. With HUM up nearly double digits and peers CI, ELV, and CNC following, the sector is acting as both a defensive anchor and a source of alpha. Monexa AI characterizes these as company‑specific catalysts and potential M&A or policy‑sensitive flows; regardless, the magnitude argues position‑adjustment rather than macro drift.

Energy equities’ ability to rally into a down‑week for oil is another notable intraday tell. With XOM and MPC higher, equity investors appear to be rewarding cash return frameworks and near‑term margin visibility over commodity tape noise, a stance that could persist into the OPEC+ meeting unless supply headlines materially shift direction (Reuters.

Finally, breadth across Financials and Industrials matters for the afternoon. If JPM, V, and freight leaders like JBHT hold gains, the Dow’s leadership likely sustains, while the NASDAQ’s path hinges on whether semis can offset software giveback into the close.

Conclusion#

Midday Recap & Afternoon Outlook#

By midday, the market reflects a pragmatic balance: modest index gains anchored by the Dow and NYSE, a slightly weaker NASDAQ on software drawdowns, and steady implied volatility. The mixed macro print—ISM services at 50.0 and S&P Global services at 54.2—combined with cautious Fed commentary, encouraged a tilt toward Utilities, REITs, and high‑quality Financials, even as parts of cyclicals climbed on improving freight and energy resilience. Company‑specific headlines drove the most dramatic moves, from PLTR’s security‑risk selloff to PLUG’s squeeze on renewed hydrogen optimism.

Heading into the afternoon, investors will watch three swing variables. First, whether semis and hardware leadership can keep the NASDAQ from dragging broader indices lower. Second, whether the managed‑care surge in Healthcare sustains into the close, given its outsized influence today. Third, whether Financials and Industrials maintain breadth, which would preserve the Dow’s advantage and keep the S&P 500 grinding higher. With the VIX near 16.68, there is room for a directional push on incremental headlines, but positioning suggests dips may continue to find buyers in defensives and quality cyclicals until the next hard datapoints arrive.

Key Takeaways#

The market’s intraday message is discipline over drama. According to Monexa AI, breadth is positive across Utilities, Financials, Industrials, and parts of Energy and Real Estate, while Technology remains a stock‑picker’s arena with semis up and software mixed. Macroeconomic signals were mixed but leaned softer, and Fed speakers reinforced a cautious stance on easing. Oil’s weekly slump into OPEC+ contrasts with firmer U.S. energy equities, which are trading company fundamentals over commodity beta. For portfolio construction, the day favors a barbell of quality cyclicals and income‑yielding defensives, with careful sizing in idiosyncratic tech and consumer exposures where headline risk remains elevated.

— Data sources: Monexa AI intraday market data and sector heatmap; ISM and PMI prints via CNBC; Fed commentary via CNBC and Bloomberg; oil/energy updates via Reuters.