Dow Lifts Toward Record, Airlines Boost Industrials at Midday

Introduction#

Thursday’s midday tape paints a picture of selective strength rather than a broad advance. The S&P 500 hovers just below a fresh intraday record at 6,283.49 (+0.32%) after touching a new high minutes before lunch, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperforms at 44,725.89 (+0.60%) thanks to a powerful move in the airline complex. By contrast, the NASDAQ Composite is almost flat at 20,629.40 (+0.09%) as heavyweight software names cool. The market opened cautiously amid lingering tariff rhetoric but quickly found rotation into travel, financials and a handful of cyclicals, offsetting softness in megacap tech.

Market Overview#

Intraday Indices Table & Commentary#

The divergence is notable: the Dow’s rally is powered almost entirely by Delta Air Lines and aerospace peers, illustrating how a single industry is dictating an index-level move. Meanwhile, the VIX slipping to a 15-handle underscores a risk-on mood despite fresh trade headlines.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Releases & Policy Updates#

According to Monexa AI data aggregated from Bloomberg and the U.S. Labor Department, weekly jobless claims fell to 227,000, beating consensus by roughly 9,000 filings. The surprise drop reinforces the view expressed on CNBC by JPMorgan’s Oksana Aronov that the Federal Reserve can remain patient rather than aggressive. Treasury yields are little changed intraday, suggesting traders see the print as confirmation—not a game-changer—of the current no-cut July narrative.

Liquidity remains a side conversation. A widely circulated note warning of a potential $500 billion liquidity drain later this quarter has not moved markets yet, but it is feeding institutional discussion about funding conditions as the Fed’s balance-sheet runoff continues.

Global & Geopolitical Developments#

Overnight, President Donald Trump confirmed a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports effective August 1 and hinted at escalations against Japan and South Korea. The reaction so far is muted—Wall Street appears to be embracing the view, highlighted by UBS strategists, that deadlines will slide once more. Still, copper prices continue to grind higher on COMEX, and London’s FTSE 100 hit an all-time high of 8,960 on miner strength, underscoring the link between tariff talk and commodity flows.

In commodities, spot gold edges up +0.3% to $3,323/oz, staying inside a narrow two-week range. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $111,000 overnight and now trades around $110,962, reflecting the same ‘risk-embrace’ mood—its rally has tracked the AI equity boom closely.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

The aggregate sector feed shows Industrials in the red, yet Monexa AI’s heat-map reveals airlines up double-digits, pushing a real-time sector print to +1.35%. The discrepancy reflects index construction: airlines carry modest weight in the broad Industrials cohort but dominate today’s narrative. Financials lead cleanly, helped by a bid in money-center banks (GS +1.56%) and asset managers (
KKR +3.00%). Technology’s slight pullback is concentrated in software: Autodesk ‑7.67% and PTC ‑6.33% offset chip gains from Advanced Micro Devices +4.14% and Teradyne +6.12%.

Company-Specific Insights#

Travel stocks carry the session. Delta Air Lines soars +13.39% to a four-month high after reporting EPS of $2.10 versus $2.01 estimates and reinstating 2025 guidance. Management’s tone on capacity and fuel costs sparked sympathy moves in United Airlines (+16.16%) and Southwest (+8.84%).

In biotech, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals trades just under $90 after Guggenheim upgraded the name to “Buy” and boosted its target to $119, even as investors digest the dilution from a $175 million secondary offering. The sell-side call argues that pivotal obesity data more than offsets near-term share supply.

Packaged-food heavyweight Conagra Brands falls -3.46%—a 13-year low—after missing top- and bottom-line views. Management blamed price-sensitive consumers and highlighted margin pressure from tariffs still “in the pipeline,” echoing comments from retail entrepreneur Daymond John on CNBC earlier in the morning.

AI-chip king Nvidia is fractionally higher at $163.45 (+0.35%), enough to keep its capitalisation just shy of the $4 trillion mark it briefly pierced yesterday. TSMC, its primary foundry partner, is off -0.77% despite posting a 39% year-on-year sales surge—a reminder that perfection is now priced into most AI names.

Extended Analysis – Intraday Shifts & Momentum#

The session’s defining characteristic is rotation rather than reversal. At the open, tariff chatter weighed on risk sentiment, nudging all three majors into the red. Within 30 minutes, however, Delta’s blowout print catalysed a short squeeze across airlines, machinery and certain consumer leisure names. The Dow, with its price-weighted methodology, naturally amplified the move.

Meanwhile, the software subgroup—flush after an extended AI run—handed back a slice of outperformance. Traders citing Reuters pointed to valuation discipline ahead of next week’s earnings schedule: Microsoft, Adobe and ServiceNow all report within a fortnight and are already discounting mid-teens growth. Profit-taking in cloud or design software suggests investors want fresh evidence before paying higher multiples.

Market breadth remains under scrutiny. Monexa AI analytics show only 63% of S&P 500 constituents above their 200-day moving average, down from 74% three weeks ago. That erosion dovetails with Goldman Sachs’ caution that tail risk has risen for a Q3 drawdown. The VIX at 15.7 implies complacency, but small-cap volatility (^RVX) is holding above 22, hinting at pocketed stress beneath the benchmark surface.

Cross-asset flows confirm the dichotomy. Bitcoin’s new high applies a speculative gloss, yet gold remains range-bound and Treasury yields are steady—signals that macro hedging still matters. Institutional desks tell Monexa AI they continue to funnel cash into short-duration credit, consistent with the UBS view that tightening spreads underestimate tariff risk.

Conclusion – Midday Recap & Afternoon Outlook#

At lunch, Wall Street is balanced between rotation and restraint. Airlines, financials and selected cyclicals are doing the heavy lifting, reviving the Dow and masking softness in high-beta tech. Economic data reinforced the “no Fed cut for now” camp, yet did not jolt bond yields, keeping equity risk premiums stable. Tariff threats linger, but the market’s muted reaction signals an assumption of delay rather than escalation.

Looking into the afternoon, traders will watch whether Nasdaq sellers press their advantage. A sustained fade in megacap tech would expose the narrow leadership that has fuelled record highs. Conversely, if financials and industrials hold their bid into the close, breadth could stabilise ahead of tomorrow’s producer-price data.

Key Takeaways: The Dow’s airline-powered surge and the S&P 500’s incremental high mask an underlying dependence on a handful of sectors. AI champions remain pivotal, but today’s price action shows investors are willing to pivot when a compelling earnings surprise emerges elsewhere. With tariffs and liquidity concerns still unresolved, disciplined positioning into the afternoon—tilting toward quality balance-sheet cyclicals while trimming stretched software winners—appears the prudent course.