5 min read

Toll Brothers (TOL) — Earnings & Margin Analysis

by monexa-ai

Intraday rally lifts Toll Brothers to $128.29. We analyze FY2024 margins, cash flow, land strategy and pre-earnings risks shaping near-term investor signals.

Skyscraper skyline with upward arrow and candlestick chart against a soft purple dusk city background

Skyscraper skyline with upward arrow and candlestick chart against a soft purple dusk city background

Introduction: Intraday move and strategic signal#

Shares of TOL surged +3.31% to $128.29, adding roughly $12.6B of market value intraday — a notable move as the stock heads into an upcoming earnings release. The size and direction of the move reflect renewed market attention on the company’s delivery cadence and margin profile.

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Intraday pricing (price $128.29, +$4.11 / +3.31%) and the session market capitalization (about $12.60B) are reported in Monexa AI’s intraday feed. (source: Monexa AI.

There is a data discrepancy between Monexa’s intraday quote and the fundamentals profile (profile price $124.18, market cap listed as $12.19B). I prioritize the stockQuotes feed as the more recent market snapshot (timestamped in the feed) while treating the fundamentals profile as a static summary; both are cited below. (source: Monexa AI.

Key developments & strategic moves#

Toll Brothers continues to press its luxury-first expansion into high-growth corridors — including announced activity in Idaho and targeted launches in Charlotte — while incrementally building a multifamily rental pipeline to diversify cash flows. Company materials and market reports cite Boise/Eagle and Charlotte as prioritized growth corridors for higher-ASP product. (sources: Toll Brothers Idaho, AInvest coverage.

Management emphasizes an optioned-lot approach (roughly a 60% optioned / 40% owned mix in public commentary) to preserve capital efficiency and accelerate starts when demand improves; this mix is central to Toll’s stated margin protection strategy. (source: Toll Brothers: Strategic Growth.

The move into apartments is portrayed as a diversification hedge — recurring cash flow and cross-sell optionality to eventual for-sale buyers — but remains complementary to the single-family luxury focus rather than a full pivot away from Toll’s core segment. (source: The Builders Daily.

Financial performance and key metrics#

Toll’s FY2024 results show revenue of $10.85B and net income of $1.57B, with a gross margin of 27.87% and net margin of 14.49%, reflecting margin expansion versus prior years. These figures are drawn from the company’s FY financials as presented by Monexa AI. (source: Monexa AI.

Metric FY2024 FY2023 FY2022
Revenue $10.85B $9.99B $10.28B
Gross profit $3.02B $2.63B $2.49B
Net income $1.57B $1.37B $1.29B
Gross margin 27.87% 26.36% 24.20%
Operating margin 18.81% 17.26% 14.68%
Net margin 14.49% 13.73% 12.52%

(Table data: company financials via Monexa AI) (source: Monexa AI.

Toll’s TTM operating metrics show Net Income Per Share (TTM) $13.82, Free Cash Flow Per Share (TTM) $7.24, a current ratio of 3.92x and net debt of $1.66B at fiscal year-end — indicators of balance-sheet liquidity and moderate leverage for a homebuilder. The company reported free cash flow of $936.52MM in FY2024, with dividends paid of $93.4MM and no share repurchases in FY2024 (common stock repurchased = $0). (source: Monexa AI.

Snapshot Value
Intraday price $128.29
Change +$4.11 (+3.31%)
Market cap $12.60B
EPS (TTM) $13.82
P/E (market quote) 9.54x
P/E (TTM) 8.99x
Free cash flow (FY2024) $936.52MM
Dividends (FY2024) $93.4MM
Share buybacks (FY2024) $0

(Snapshot data: Monexa AI intraday and financials) (source: Monexa AI.

Toll’s reported FY2024 gross margin of 27.87% is supported by a luxury-focused ASP strategy, optioned-land exposure and pricing discipline; sustaining that margin requires stable order flow and the ability to pass through or absorb material and labor cost changes without broad discounting. (Answer and figures: Monexa AI.

The margin trend is clear: gross margin rose from 22.10% (FY2021) to 27.87% (FY2024), showing multi-year improvement tied to product mix and pricing. (source: Monexa AI.

Risk to sustainability is mainly demand-driven: if new orders materially deteriorate, the optionality in Toll’s land mix will help limit downside, but margin resilience ultimately depends on sell-through in targeted premium markets and cost control on build side. Investors should watch new orders, deliveries and backlog ASPs in the upcoming release.

Competitive context and capital allocation#

Toll occupies a distinct luxury/move-up niche relative to broader volume players. Competitors like DHI and LEN focus on scale and broader price bands; Lennar’s asset-light and REIT plans illustrate a different capital-allocation path versus Toll’s owner/operator model. (sources: SimplyWall.st Lennar coverage, Traded.co Lennar REIT coverage.

On allocation, Toll returned cash via dividends ($93.4MM in FY2024) while pausing buybacks (common stock repurchased = $0 in FY2024), a shift from larger repurchases in prior years. That pattern signals a tilt toward preserving liquidity and optionality during cyclical sensitivity. (source: Monexa AI.

Capital efficiency (optioned lot mix) plus a moderate leverage profile (net debt $1.66B; net debt/EBITDA ~1.21x) give Toll measurable flexibility versus more levered peers. (source: Monexa AI.

What this means for investors — key takeaways#

Toll’s recent intraday move underscores investor focus on earnings, order momentum and margin durability. Key, verifiable points: revenue $10.85B and net income $1.57B in FY2024; gross margin 27.87%; free cash flow $936.52MM; intraday price $128.29 (+3.31%). (source: Monexa AI.

  1. Margin quality: Toll’s mid-20s gross margins reflect luxury ASPs and product mix — monitor new orders and backlog ASPs for confirmation.
  2. Capital allocation: dividends continued while buybacks paused in FY2024 — a liquidity-first stance during the cycle.
  3. Balance-sheet: strong current ratio (3.92x) and moderate net debt provide operational flexibility.

Overall, the data-driven signal is that Toll is defending margin through product and land strategy while prioritizing liquidity; the upcoming earnings release should clarify whether order momentum in targeted growth markets is sufficient to sustain the current margin profile. (sources: Monexa AI, Toll Brothers investor site.

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