Berkshire’s $850M Move, Q2 EPS of $2.60 and a New Risk Layer#
Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a roughly $850 million position in [NUE] just as Nucor reported Q2 2025 diluted EPS of $2.60 on $8.46 billion in net sales — a combination that refocused attention on Nucor’s role in domestic infrastructure and the company’s exposure to AI‑led data‑center demand. At the same time, Nucor confirmed a May 2025 cybersecurity incident that resulted in limited data exfiltration, adding an operational and reputational risk to an otherwise tangible‑asset story. The juxtaposition is vivid: a high‑profile institutional investor taking a large position while the company navigates cyclical profit compression and discrete non‑operational shocks, underscoring both the opportunity and the volatility in Nucor’s near‑term trajectory (Berkshire stake: Seeking Alpha / AInvest; Q2 results: Nucor press release) https://seekingalpha.com/news/4485669-berkshire-hathaway-takes-new-stakes-in-unitedhealth-nucor-pares-back-on-apple https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nucor-reports-results-for-the-second-quarter-of-2025-302515226.html.
Professional Market Analysis Platform
Make informed decisions with institutional-grade data. Track what Congress, whales, and top investors are buying.
This report combines the latest quarterly disclosure, full‑year 2024 financials and company‑level metrics to answer the central question investors face: can Nucor convert cyclical commodity strength and a large buyback/dividend program into a durable structural story tied to data‑center and infrastructure demand while managing elevated capex and new cybersecurity exposures?
Financial snapshot and recent performance (recalculated)#
Nucor’s full‑year results and trailing metrics show a clear retrenchment from the 2021–2022 profit cycle and a stop‑start recovery into 2025. The following table reproduces the company’s core income‑statement line items for FY 2021–2024 and shows year‑over‑year changes we calculated directly from the company figures.
More company-news-NUE Posts
Nucor Corporation (NUE): Margin Compression Meets Heavy CapEx
Nucor warned Q3 margin compression while FY2024 net income plunged -55.20% to **$2.03B** as a $3B 2025 capex program ramps and buybacks continue.
Nucor Corporation: Buffett Bet, Earnings Shock, Capital Allocation
Berkshire’s ~3% stake in Nucor coincides with a sharp earnings pullback and heavy capex: revenue -11.46%, net income -55.04% in FY2024, with buybacks still at $2.22B.
Nucor Corporation (NUE): Berkshire’s Big Bet and a Quarter That Exposes the Cyclical Tradeoffs
Berkshire’s ~ $850M stake in Nucor landed as the company posted a Q2 EPS beat ($2.60) but softer revenue and cautious guidance, exposing margin and cash‑flow inflection points.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD) | Gross Profit (USD) | Operating Income (USD) | Net Income (USD) | EBITDA (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30,730,000,000 | 4,100,000,000 | 2,980,000,000 | 2,030,000,000 | 4,490,000,000 |
| 2023 | 34,710,000,000 | 7,820,000,000 | 6,230,000,000 | 4,520,000,000 | 7,690,000,000 |
| 2022 | 41,510,000,000 | 12,500,000,000 | 10,510,000,000 | 7,610,000,000 | 11,570,000,000 |
| 2021 | 36,480,000,000 | 11,030,000,000 | 9,320,000,000 | 6,830,000,000 | 10,230,000,000 |
The headline moves from 2023 → 2024: revenue fell -11.47% (30.73B vs 34.71B) and net income declined -55.08% (2.03B vs 4.52B). EBITDA retracted -41.61% (4.49B vs 7.69B). These declines mirror weaker average selling prices, compressed downstream margins and a normalization from the elevated steel spreads seen in 2021–2022 (company financials).
We also recalculated key balance‑sheet and cash‑flow indicators to frame capital allocation decisions and financial flexibility:
| Balance Sheet (FY end) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents (USD) | 3,560,000,000 | 6,380,000,000 | 4,280,000,000 | 2,360,000,000 |
| Total Current Assets (USD) | 12,470,000,000 | 16,390,000,000 | 14,690,000,000 | 12,800,000,000 |
| Total Assets (USD) | 33,940,000,000 | 35,340,000,000 | 32,480,000,000 | 25,820,000,000 |
| Total Debt (USD) | 6,950,000,000 | 6,840,000,000 | 6,690,000,000 | 5,680,000,000 |
| Net Debt (USD) | 3,390,000,000 | 459,000,000 | 2,410,000,000 | 3,320,000,000 |
| Total Equity (USD) | 20,290,000,000 | 20,940,000,000 | 18,410,000,000 | 14,020,000,000 |
From these figures we calculated operating and leverage ratios (all calculations use year‑end balances and the company’s reported FY income/EBITDA): 2024 year‑end current ratio = 12.47B / 4.98B = 2.50x; debt / equity = 6.95B / 20.29B = 0.34x (34.25%); net debt / EBITDA (2024) = 3.39B / 4.49B = 0.75x; EBITDA margin (2024) = 4.49B / 30.73B = 14.61%; net margin (2024) = 2.03B / 30.73B = 6.61%.
Note on data inconsistencies: the dataset includes a TTM net debt / EBITDA of 1.37x and a TTM current ratio of 2.83x — both differ from our FY‑end recalculations because TTM measures use trailing 12‑month aggregated flows and average balance‑sheet denominators; our calculations use discrete FY 2024 year‑end values for transparency. Where figures conflict (for example, cash‑flow statement lists net income of 2.32B for 2024 vs 2.03B in the income statement), we prioritize the income‑statement lines for profitability metrics and the cash‑flow statement for cash‑flow and capital‑spend analysis, and we flag the discrepancy below (company filings / compiled financials).
Cash generation, capital return and capital allocation dynamics#
Nucor remains aggressively shareholder‑focused even through cyclicality. In FY 2024 the company repurchased $2.22 billion of common stock and paid $522 million in dividends, a combined return of $2.742 billion. Using the income‑statement net income for 2024 (2.03B), total capital returned represents about 135.1% of reported net income — an outsized payout relative to earnings that was funded through operating cash, cash balances and financing activity (cash at end 2024 fell to $3.56B from $6.38B a year earlier; net change in cash was -2.83B) [company cash‑flow data].
Free cash flow in 2024 collapsed to $806 million from $4.9 billion in 2023 — a drop of -83.55% — driven by stepped‑up capital expenditures (capex of $3.17 billion in 2024 vs $2.21 billion in 2023) and acquisitions (acquisitions net -757MM in 2024). FCF margin (FCF / revenue) for 2024 is therefore ~2.62% (0.806B / 30.73B). The sharp FCF swing reduced liquidity and explains the increase in net debt to $3.39 billion at year‑end 2024.
The capital allocation mix — meaningful buybacks alongside a rising capex program (company disclosed program‑level activity near $3 billion for 2025) — is a critical tension. Management has historically prioritized returning cash but is simultaneously investing in capacity expansion, decarbonization and targeted M&A aimed at higher‑value, steel‑adjacent markets (company guidance and news releases). The economics of those investments will determine whether returns today translate into improved earnings power or simply increase cyclicality risk if commodity fundamentals worsen.
Earnings quality and near‑term operating drivers (Q2 2025 focus)#
Nucor’s Q2 2025 report (quarter ended June 30, 2025) offers the clearest short‑run datapoint. The company reported net sales of $8.46 billion and diluted EPS $2.60, with shipments up roughly 8% year‑over‑year to ~6.82 million tons and average selling prices per ton down about 3% YoY. Management said the Steel Mills segment was the stronger contributor with operating earnings around $843 million, while Steel Products recorded pressure with operating earnings near $392 million as downstream businesses faced tighter spreads and competitive pricing [Nucor Q2 press release] [https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nucor-reports-results-for-the-second-quarter-of-2025-302515226.html].
We judge Q2 performance as mixed: volume recovery helped revenue but margin compression in downstream fabrication and stable/higher scrap costs squeezed consolidated profitability. The company’s Q2 EPS of $2.60 broadly tracked the mid‑point of the company’s guided range for the quarter, but it is meaningfully lower than the elevated per‑ton earnings seen in 2021–2022.
Quality of earnings: operating cash flow through FY 2024 remained positive ($3.98 billion from operations in 2024), but the drop in FCF and the outsized capital returns indicate that reported net income will be an increasingly noisy signal in periods of heavy M&A/capex. Investors should prefer cash‑flow metrics for assessing durability.
Strategic repositioning: AI infrastructure, EAF advantage and product diversification#
Nucor has publicly framed part of its growth opportunity as participation in data‑center and prefab construction markets where steel intensity, traceability and embodied‑carbon claims matter. The company’s Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) model — which relies heavily on recycled scrap — gives it two advantages: shorter lead times/capex intensity versus blast‑furnace rivals and a lower embodied‑carbon profile that buyers increasingly demand. Nucor has also signaled M&A and product investments that aim to move some revenue mix from commodity coils into systems and prefabricated elements used by hyperscalers and large construction firms (company product pages and case studies) [https://nucor.com/data-centers] .
The strategic logic is straightforward: data‑center construction is steel‑intensive, and as hyperscalers and corporate builders prioritize lower‑carbon, domestic supply chains, an EAF‑recycled steel provider with upstream scale and downstream distribution could capture incremental margin. The pace of that capture depends on contract wins, product differentiation (e.g., prefabrication, integrated systems) and the company’s ability to deliver competitive pricing versus global mills.
Execution indicator: management highlighted continued investments for capacity and green steel in 2025 (capex guidance and project disclosures). The payoff will be measured across three vectors — tonnage growth, mix uplift (share of higher‑value fabricated sales) and improved per‑ton contribution margins. Absent clear evidence of structural uplift to contribution margins, the AI/data‑center narrative remains an incremental demand story rather than a proven margin re‑rating catalyst.
Competitive dynamics and industry headwinds#
The steel industry remains cyclic and exposed to global capacity imbalances. On the domestic front, tariff policy and infrastructure spending have been supportive for U.S. producers; however, global overcapacity (notably variable flows from China), scrap price volatility and demand swings in construction and manufacturing create recurring downside risk. Nucor’s durable advantages are its EAF model, recycling footprint and decentralized operating model, which support relative cost and operational flexibility versus some integrated legacy rivals.
But competitive pressures are real in downstream fabrication, where value capture is contingent on scale and service — areas where regional competitors and specialty fabricators can compete on lead time and price. Nucor’s ability to move more of its volume into integrated building systems and data‑center components will be a key determinant of margin resilience.
Cybersecurity incident: scope, impact and implications#
Nucor disclosed a cybersecurity incident detected in early May 2025 and confirmed limited data exfiltration in June 2025; the company engaged external cybersecurity firms and federal law enforcement (public disclosures, SecurityWeek). Management stated the incident would not have a material impact on financials, and operations were restored across the U.S., Mexico and Canada (SecurityWeek; SteelIndustry.News) https://www.securityweek.com/steelmaker-nucor-says-hackers-stole-data-in-recent-attack/ [https://steelindustry.news/nucor-cyberattack-2025-what-happened-and-why-it-matters-to-manufacturing/].
The immediate financial damage appears limited, but the incident raises three structural considerations: first, procurement‑sensitive customers (hyperscalers, defense contractors) may elevate cybersecurity requirements for suppliers; second, remediation and ongoing monitoring represent incremental operating costs; third, any data loss tied to contracts or IP could impose longer‑term legal or client‑relationship costs. In short, cybersecurity is now a business‑continuity and commercial risk for industrial suppliers that sell into sensitive technology chains — a non‑trivial new line item for capital allocation and risk management.
Valuation signals and sell‑side estimates (what the numbers imply)#
Market metrics in the dataset show a current stock price of $150.33 with market cap $34.51B and trailing EPS ~5.58 (per quote snapshot). The company’s reported TTM P/E in the dataset is ~26.75x, while forward P/E estimates slide from ~18.02x (2025) to lower multiples farther out as earnings are forecast to recover (forwardPE schedule in the dataset). Analysts’ modelled revenue and EPS growth in the provided forecast set imply revenue re‑acceleration: 2025 estimated revenue ~$32.81B with estimated EPS ~$8.40, and longer‑term EPS projections climbing materially into the high‑teens by 2029 in the dataset (company analyst estimates aggregated).
Taken together, the market is effectively pricing a multi‑year normalization: earnings expand from 2024 troughs, capex supports higher throughput, and multiple compression from cyclicality is expected to unwind as earnings recover. The key sensitivity: if FCF does not rebound in line with modeled EPS (i.e., margin recovery plus controlled capex), the multiple expansion implied in forward P/E will be difficult to achieve.
What this means for investors#
Investors should anchor any assessment of [NUE] to three measurable axes: cyclical end‑market recovery (shipments and spreads), capital allocation discipline (buybacks vs. reinvestment), and execution on strategic moves into higher‑value, steel‑adjacent markets (data centers, prefabrication). The Berkshire position (~$850M) is a high‑profile vote of confidence in the company’s long‑term economics and capital allocation track record, but it does not immunize Nucor from steel‑cycle volatility or execution risk (Berkshire stake: Seeking Alpha / AInvest) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4815405-nucor-berkshire-hathaway-bet-on-quality-is-not-a-fluke.
Near term, watch these quantifiable indicators: quarterly shipments and average selling price per ton (momentum = recovery), EBITDA per ton (margin conversion), free cash flow trajectory (FCF margin recovery toward historical norms), and the ratio of buybacks/dividends to operating cash flow (sustainability of returns). Additionally, monitor announcements of major contracts with hyperscalers or large construction customers as hard evidence that the data‑center/prefab strategy is delivering higher margin mix.
Risks and key downside triggers#
Principal risks are cyclical and executional. A renewed downturn in U.S. construction or slower data‑center build cycles could compress spreads and earnings rapidly. Elevated capex and M&A in the near term increase execution risk and pressure cash flows; combined buybacks and heavy capex can lift net debt, reducing flexibility. The cybersecurity incident is a new class of operational risk that could increase fixed costs for IT and compliance and, in a worst case, drive customer pushback.
Key takeaways#
• Berkshire’s roughly $850M stake has drawn renewed attention to Nucor’s structural positioning in domestic steel and data‑center supply chains, but the stake is a strategic signal, not an earnings guarantee. (Seeking Alpha / AInvest)
• FY 2024 showed a marked pullback from the 2021–2022 profit cycle: revenue -11.47%, net income -55.08%, and EBITDA -41.61% versus 2023 (company filings). These are the numbers that shape forward recovery expectations.
• Liquidity and capital allocation are under tension: FY 2024 free cash flow fell to $806MM while buybacks plus dividends totaled $2.742B, implying returns exceeded reported net income for the year and drove net debt to $3.39B at year‑end.
• Strategyally, the EAF/recycling model and investments in prefab/data‑center products are credible pathways to higher‑quality revenue, but evidence of durable margin improvement is still nascent; contract wins and margin per ton improvements are the necessary proof points.
• The May 2025 cybersecurity incident introduces a recurring operational cost and reputational consideration for customers that require secure supply chains; remediation and monitoring are now an embedded cost of doing business.
Conclusion#
Nucor sits at a crossroads: an industrial franchise with asset intensity, shareholder‑friendly capital allocation and a credible, if early, strategic path into higher‑value markets tied to AI infrastructure and onshoring. That narrative has attracted a large institutional backer and media attention, but the company must bridge the gap between cyclical recovery and structural margin expansion while managing higher capex, a notable return‑of‑capital program and emerging cybersecurity exposures.
Investors should evaluate [NUE] through measurable, data‑driven milestones rather than narrative alone: sequential improvements in shipments and per‑ton margins, a rebound in free cash flow relative to capital returns, and commercial traction in higher‑value product lines. Those are the hard signals that will determine whether the current combination of strategic ambition and balance‑sheet flexibility translates into sustainable, higher‑quality earnings.
Sources: Nucor Q2 2025 results and guidance (company press releases / PR Newswire) https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nucor-reports-results-for-the-second-quarter-of-2025-302515226.html; Berkshire stake coverage (Seeking Alpha / AInvest) https://seekingalpha.com/news/4485669-berkshire-hathaway-takes-new-stakes-in-unitedhealth-nucor-pares-back-on-apple; cybersecurity reporting (SecurityWeek; SteelIndustry.News) https://www.securityweek.com/steelmaker-nucor-says-hackers-stole-data-in-recent-attack/ https://steelindustry.news/nucor-cyberattack-2025-what-happened-and-why-it-matters-to-manufacturing/. Company financials, cash‑flow and analyst estimates are taken from the compiled company filings and the dataset provided above.