Introduction#
According to Monexa AI end-of-day data, the S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,296.79 (-0.01%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 44,342.19 (-0.32%), and the NASDAQ Composite at 20,895.66 (+0.05%). After the bell, headlines were dominated by President Trump’s push for a baseline 15-20% tariff on European imports effective 1 August, fresh scrutiny of Federal Reserve independence, and a flurry of corporate news ranging from NVDA chip shortages in China to a last-minute settlement that spared META an $8 billion Delaware trial. Overnight sessions in Asia and Europe were mixed, leaving U.S. index futures modestly higher—S&P 500 Futures +0.3%, Nasdaq 100 Futures +0.3%, Dow Futures +0.3%—as investors weigh trade rhetoric against the earnings cadence kicking off with TSLA and GOOGL mid-week.
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Market Overview#
Yesterday’s Close Recap#
| Ticker | Closing Price | Price Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ^SPX | 6,296.79 | ‑0.57 | ‑0.01% |
| ^DJI | 44,342.19 | ‑142.31 | ‑0.32% |
| ^IXIC | 20,895.66 | +10.01 | +0.05% |
| ^NYA | 20,541.56 | ‑47.96 | ‑0.23% |
| ^RVX | 23.92 | +0.52 | +2.22% |
| ^VIX | 16.89 | +0.48 | +2.93% |
Friday’s tape was defined by sector rotation rather than index direction. A decisive bid for defensive yield drove Utilities (+2.69%) to the top of the leaderboard, while Healthcare (-1.39%) and Technology (-0.85%) lagged on stock-specific disappointments—MOH -10.41% and AMD -2.13% respectively. Volatility edged higher as the CBOE VIX closed at 16.89 (+2.93%), its first back-to-back rise since early June, underscoring demand for downside hedges going into an unpredictable policy week.
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Overnight Developments#
In Asia, the Japanese yen rallied 0.6% after Prime Minister Ishiba’s coalition lost its upper-house majority, provoking talk of a near-term Bank of Japan hike. Shanghai equities were flat, but the South Korean KOSPI slipped on semiconductor export worries tied to U.S. restrictions. European bourses opened mixed: the STOXX 600 is essentially unchanged as Brussels readies a “no-deal” tariff contingency plan should talks with Washington fail. Commodity markets reflected the unease: spot gold firmed 0.5% to $3,365/oz, while Brent crude faded to $94/bbl as traders braced for possible demand headwinds.
Macro Analysis#
Economic Indicators to Watch#
The macro calendar is heavily front-loaded toward week-end risk. Tomorrow brings June Existing-Home Sales and the July Richmond Fed Survey, neither typically market-moving but important for gauging consumer resilience. Wednesday offers June Durable Goods Orders and, crucially, [TSLA] earnings after the bell—often a sentiment barometer for discretionary spending and EV policy. The marquee event is the FOMC meeting (29–30 July). Fed Funds futures imply only a 4.7% probability of a cut this month, yet the curve prices a one-in-three chance of September easing given the July CPI print’s 2-handle and softening PPI. Any dovish hint from Chair Powell could re-price the front end aggressively.
Global / Geopolitical Factors#
Trade remains the elephant in the room. The administration’s proposal for a 15–20% blanket tariff on EU goods—confirmed by WSJ on Friday—hits precisely as European growth wobbles and corporate confidence surveys trend lower. Parallel negotiations with Beijing over rare-earth quotas eased slightly last week, yet the NVIDIA H20 export saga (more below) illustrates how swiftly tech détente can reverse. Investors should also monitor debates over Fed governance. Politically charged critiques of Chair Powell raise the specter of policy drift, which could translate into wider term premia across the Treasury curve.
Sector Analysis#
Sector Performance Table#
| Sector | % Change (Close) |
|---|---|
| Utilities | +2.69% |
| Consumer Cyclical | +0.62% |
| Basic Materials | +0.23% |
| Energy | ‑0.17% |
| Financial Services | ‑0.31% |
| Real Estate | ‑0.34% |
| Communication Services | ‑0.62% |
| Industrials | ‑0.64% |
| Consumer Defensive | ‑0.83% |
| Technology | ‑0.85% |
| Healthcare | -1.39% |
Utilities’ outperformance was spearheaded by Vistra VST +6.05% and Constellation Energy CEG +4.33%, signalling a hunt for duration-heavy cash flows as policy risk rises. In contrast, Healthcare sank under managed-care downgrades—ELV fell 8.38% after trimming profit guidance, while MOH slid 10.41% on reimbursement uncertainty. Technology’s mild pullback masked sharp dispersion: DELL surged +5.94% on positive AI-server commentary, yet [AMD] declined as investors questioned next-gen GPU launch timing.
Company-Specific Insights#
Earnings And Key Movers#
The second-quarter reporting season pivots to the “Magnificent Seven” this week. Consensus expects the group to deliver 14% EPS growth—double the broader S&P run-rate—so the hurdle is high.
[TSLA] reports Wednesday evening. The stock’s +3.21% move Friday reflects repositioning after Deutsche Bank reaffirmed a $345 target; however, unit deliveries missed internal targets, and investors will press management on margin compression, the robotaxi unveil (scheduled 8 August), and whether recent SpaceX contract reviews could bleed into automotive sentiment.
[GOOGL] posts on Thursday. CFRA’s Angelo Zino framed Alphabet as the “value name” in mega-cap tech, yet cloud capex guidance is the swing factor. Friday’s close at $185.06 (+0.81%) leaves the stock 6% below its 52-week high, offering room if ad‐revenue re-accelerates.
[NVDA] is not on the docket until August, but the narrative is already moving. Over the weekend, the company told Chinese clients that supplies of its H20 AI chip are “extremely limited”, with no restart timeline. According to Monexa AI, the curtailed flow could lop $2.5 bn off Q3 revenue if licenses do not arrive. Rival [AMD] is pitching its MI400 series as a substitute, yet investors should temper expectations: AMD still relies on the same TSMC nodes subject to export licensing.
[META] dodged a potentially precedent-setting data-privacy trial by agreeing to settle for undisclosed terms late Friday. The Delaware Chancery reprieve removes an overhang, though it also renews calls for governance reform ahead of FTC rule-makings expected this fall.
In Financials, regional banks caught a bid: RF closed +6.12% as steepening yields bolster net-interest margins. Yet large-cap performance was uneven; JPM inched up only +0.47% as management warned of higher loan-loss provisions if tariffs dent consumer credit.
On the commodity side, gold-equity correlations have reignited. The 0.5% rise in spot gold supported miners, but energy equities failed to track crude—XOM fell -3.48% on sliding refining margins, underscoring how factor leadership is fragmented.
Conclusion#
Morning Recap And Outlook#
Futures suggest a muted rebound, yet the cross-currents are formidable. Tariff brinkmanship, a Fed communication minefield, and mega-cap earnings converge in the same five-day window. Defensive rotation into Utilities hints at latent fragility, while the dispersion within Tech and Healthcare says stock-picking, not sector beta, will drive returns. Investors should track:
- Any White House clarity on the 1 August EU tariff line; concrete numbers could reset industrial profit forecasts.
- Fed speak ahead of the blackout period. Even a neutral tone may be taken as dovish given political noise.
- Tesla and Alphabet results for evidence that AI-related capex and consumer demand remain intact despite macro clouds.
- NVIDIA’s supply commentary and any AMD follow-up, which could reprioritise semiconductor multiples.
Bottom line: the market is priced for perfection on earnings but bracing for policy turbulence. Staying balanced between cash-flow-rich defensives and secular compounding franchises looks prudent as we head into the bell.
All price and index data are closing figures from Friday, 18 July 2025, sourced from Monexa AI unless otherwise noted. Overnight futures and commodity quotes are from Refinitiv at 05:24 ET.