Stocks set to open firmer as Japan vote buoys risk; CPI, jobs loom

Introduction#

U.S. equities enter Monday, February 9, 2026 on steadier footing after a powerful rebound into last Friday’s close and a modestly supportive overnight tape. According to Monexa AI, the S&P 500 (^SPX) finished Friday at 6,932.30 (​+1.97%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) at a record 50,115.67 (+2.47%), the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) at 23,031.21 (+2.18%), and the NYSE Composite (^NYA) at a record 23,252.81 (+2.29%). Volatility was mixed: the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (^RVX) settled at 23.41 (-11.59%), while the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) printed 18.82 (+5.97%). The latter is an unusual juxtaposition against Friday’s risk-on close and likely reflects a timing or calculation mismatch versus equity settlement rather than a clean risk read, a nuance we address below.

Overnight, the policy signal from Tokyo dominated the macro narrative. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured what local press termed a sweeping mandate, reinforcing expectations for pro-growth fiscal measures and reforms that nudged global risk appetite higher in Asia and Europe to start the week. Media reports also flagged U.S. Treasury yields edging up as investors brace for a consequential run of macro data, including the delayed January jobs report and Friday’s CPI. Bloomberg highlighted lingering concerns that “stagflationary” reads could dent risk mood, while Reuters noted that European regulators stepped up pressure on Big Tech, with the European Commission threatening interim measures over Meta’s WhatsApp policies ahead of U.S. trading.

Market Overview#

Yesterday’s Close Recap#

The tape finished the prior session with broad gains and notable milestones. According to Monexa AI, the Dow closed above 50,000 for the first time, powered by cyclical leadership and a strong breadth impulse across semiconductors, industrials, travel, and select defensives. The S&P 500’s +1.97% advance lifted it back above its 50‑day moving average (Monexa AI shows the 50‑day at 6,885.69), while the Nasdaq Composite’s +2.18% rebound, though sizable, left it fractionally below its own 50‑day trend (23,392.91), reflecting ongoing dispersion inside mega‑cap technology.

Breadth analysis from Monexa AI’s heatmap underscores that Friday’s advance was not narrow. Semiconductors and AI infrastructure led technology higher, with NVDA (+7.87%), AMD (+8.28%), AVGO (+7.08%), and SMCI (+11.44%) pacing the move. Cyclicals surged as well: industrial bellwethers like CAT (+7.06%) and airlines UAL (+9.26%) and DAL (+7.98%) added to the rally, alongside travel and leisure, where cruise operators CCL (+8.09%) and RCL (+6.72%) stood out. Defensive retailers WMT (+3.34%) and TGT (+4.24%) advanced, while energy strength favored refiners such as VLO (+4.40%).

A notable outlier was Communication Services, where mega‑cap ad/search names slipped. GOOGL and GOOG fell roughly -2% to -3% on the day and META eased (-1.30%), partially offset by gains in media and entertainment, including DIS (+3.55%) and NFLX (+1.64%). Within technology, stock‑specific weakness in VRSN (-7.60%) contrasted sharply with AI hardware momentum. In managed care, MOH plunged (-25.51%), emphasizing the idiosyncratic risk embedded in the current tape.

A brief note on volatility: Monexa AI shows ^RVX down -11.59% Friday, consistent with small‑cap strength and a calmer cross‑section. In contrast, ^VIX printed +5.97% to 18.82. Given the rally across equity indices and the time stamps in Monexa AI’s series, this likely reflects a measurement or settlement timing discrepancy rather than a genuine divergence in same‑session risk pricing. We therefore emphasize the equity breadth and rate context as the truer signal for Monday’s open.

Overnight Developments#

Markets opened the week digesting a cluster of macro and policy headlines. In Asia, the Japanese election delivered a resounding mandate for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, with local equities rallying and investors extrapolating a pro‑growth policy bias that lifted global risk appetite into the European morning. Multiple outlets, including CNBC and Reuters, framed the result as a confidence boost for cyclical exposure ahead of U.S. trading.

U.S. Treasury yields edged higher overnight as participants prepared for a heavy data calendar. Bloomberg noted concerns that a “stagflationary” mix could weigh on risk in the coming sessions, while Reuters reported European antitrust pressure on META related to its WhatsApp AI assistant policies. Separately, S&P Global Ratings warned that China’s property downturn could deepen this year, a reminder of cross‑currents to global growth that investors will monitor as they recalibrate earnings resilience and commodity demand into spring.

Media recaps also highlighted last week’s turbulence in Big Tech market caps and the stabilization in crypto‑sensitive equities, with COIN and retail broker HOOD rebounding in tandem with risk proxies. The key takeaway for Monday’s open is that overnight tone leans constructive but remains heavily data‑dependent.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Indicators to Watch#

The U.S. macro docket is pivotal this week. According to Monexa AI’s news flow, investors are focused on the delayed January jobs report and Friday’s CPI print. Headlines aggregated by Monexa AI cite research from sell‑side desks warning that systematic flows could exacerbate equity swings if benchmarks slip, a reminder that tape dynamics may be as influential as fundamentals in the very near term. Bloomberg and Reuters coverage underscores that hotter‑than‑expected inflation or resilient hiring would argue for a higher‑for‑longer policy stance, lifting real yields and compressing duration‑sensitive multiples, while a softer set of prints would nurture a soft‑landing narrative and extend cyclical leadership.

Bond market dynamics deserve special attention. Monexa AI’s curation highlights a Bank of America view that a slowdown in rebalancing flows could reduce a key source of demand for Treasuries, a scenario that would leave equities more exposed to yield spikes into data releases. Rising yields overnight, as flagged by CNBC, fit that cautionary setup.

Global/Geopolitical Factors#

The Japanese election outcome is the clearest global impulse into Monday’s open. With a two‑thirds lower‑house majority secured, policy continuity and expansionist fiscal leanings are now the base case—constructive for global cyclicals and Asian equities near term, and a modest support for risk taking in the U.S. session. At the same time, S&P Global’s warning on China’s property sales deepening adds a counterweight, with potential second‑order effects in commodities, industrial supply chains, and multinational earnings linked to China demand. In Europe, the European Commission’s antitrust posture toward META introduces another regulatory overhang for large‑cap platforms, even as the sector negotiates post‑selloff stabilization.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

According to Monexa AI’s sector performance snapshot from Friday’s close, interest‑sensitive and defensive pockets led, with cyclicals not far behind. We present the sector tape as recorded at the close.

Monexa AI’s granular heatmap shows a different emphasis inside the day—technology strength centered on AI infrastructure, robust gains in industrials and airlines, and outperformance in refiners—versus the above table’s defensive tilt. We flag this discrepancy explicitly: the sector table reflects a close‑of‑day snapshot at the GICS sector level, while the heatmap captures more granular and intraday leadership. For actionable positioning, we prioritize the heatmap’s breadth signals for today’s open, while using the sector table to benchmark where flows settled into Friday’s bell.

Data‑center REITs and specialty landlords (EQIX, DLR, IRM illustrated continued demand for AI‑adjacent infrastructure, helping Real Estate to the top of the sector ranking despite lingering weakness in legacy office footprints. Utilities produced a steady bid with merchant‑exposed operators like NRG, CEG, and VST outperforming, contrasting with regulated utilities such as ED. In Energy, refiners VLO and MPC gained alongside services HAL, while solar’s FSLR notably lagged. Basic Materials diverged: gold and diversified miners like NEM rallied, as did steelmaker STLD and lithium producer ALB, even as industrial gases leader LIN slipped amid stock‑specific pressures.

Company‑Specific Insights#

Earnings and Key Movers#

Corporate catalysts from late last week continue to shape Monday’s setup. In travel and leisure, RCL rallied after reporting adjusted EPS of $2.80 and guiding 2026 EPS to $17.70–$18.10, with occupancy around 108% and a new $425 price target from Tigress Financial, per Monexa AI’s aggregated research. The momentum reinforced the sector’s demand resiliency alongside CCL. In premium apparel, RL delivered a clean beat—$6.22 EPS on roughly $2.41 billion in revenue—raising its outlook and drawing a $420 target at Evercore ISI, signaling durable brand pricing power into a choppy consumer backdrop.

Staples and defensives offered ballast. HSY topped expectations with $1.71 EPS and $3.09 billion in revenue, with Monexa AI noting a new $238 target at Morgan Stanley. In fintech infrastructure, BR disclosed the CQG acquisition to deepen trading technology capabilities; Monexa AI’s snapshot places BR at a 23.40x P/E and 3.06x price‑to‑sales with a debt‑to‑equity of 1.32, metrics that suggest room for operating leverage as market‑data workflows consolidate.

Healthcare turned more complex. Managed‑care names were volatile after CNC posted an adjusted quarterly loss of $1.19 per share, narrower than feared, on $49.73 billion in revenue, but saw its consolidated health benefits ratio jump to 94.3%, with Commercial at 95.4%. Shares fell more than 6% intra‑day Friday per Monexa AI, and the group remains sensitive to cost‑trend commentary this week. Elsewhere in the group, large‑cap pharma and biotech outperformed, with LLY, AMGN, BIIB, and VRTX advancing.

Autos and retail painted a mixed picture. AN beat on EPS at $5.08 despite softer revenue and weaker new‑vehicle units, buoyed by used and after‑sales resilience. In consumer discretionary, UA surprised to the upside on EPS ($0.09) and revenue (~$1.33 billion) but tempered its fiscal‑year top‑line outlook given North American and Asia‑Pacific pressures and tariffs. The stock remains tactically sensitive to inventory normalization and direct‑to‑consumer execution, key elements to watch as the sector navigates promotional intensity.

Big Tech remains the single largest swing factor for index‑level returns. Friday’s rebound saw NVDA, AMD, and AVGO lead, even as AMZN closed lower (-5.55%) and META faced renewed regulatory scrutiny in Europe over WhatsApp AI access. Meanwhile, market structure commentary flagged by Monexa AI shows GS warning that trend‑following CTAs could add to equity selling pressure if the S&P 500 weakens further, while positioning in brokers like IBKR and crypto‑sensitive COIN and HOOD benefited from last week’s surge in retail and digital‑asset activity. In data‑center REITs, EQIX and DLR extended AI‑demand tailwinds into real estate.

On the information‑services front, TRI posted a 5% revenue increase to $2.009 billion in Q4 with adjusted EPS up 6% to $1.07 and adjusted EBITDA up 8%, according to Monexa AI’s summary; TD Securities maintained a Buy. Within insurance and reinsurance, RGA drew a new $263 target from Piper Sandler, pointing to ongoing confidence in capital management and growth strategy. In software and high‑beta proxies to crypto, MSTR was upgraded to Buy with a $540 target at H.C. Wainwright, a reminder that digital‑asset sensitivity can amplify equity beta on macro days.

Extended Analysis#

The most important dynamic heading into Monday’s session is the intersection of flows, rates, and concentration risk. According to Monexa AI’s synthesis of sell‑side commentary, bank research desks cautioned that systematic strategies may mechanically de‑risk on renewed S&P 500 weakness, a potential amplifier of intraday volatility into this week’s CPI and jobs reports. Simultaneously, Bank of America’s flag that rebalancing support for Treasuries may fade leaves risk assets more exposed to rate spikes if inflation surprises to the upside. That mix argues for tighter risk controls in high‑beta exposures and a preference for companies with clean earnings visibility and near‑term catalysts.

From a trend perspective, the S&P 500 reclaimed its 50‑day moving average on Friday’s close, and the Dow’s breakout to 50,000 is symbolically potent and tactically supportive. Yet the Nasdaq remains just below its 50‑day, and sector dispersion is elevated. Monexa AI’s heatmap crystallizes the reality: AI infrastructure leaders are still the engine of multiple expansion in technology, while single‑name shocks—from MOH in managed care to VRSN in software—are frequent and sizable. That combination makes stock selection, not sector ETF beta, the higher‑quality lever for Monday’s tape.

Within cyclicals, airlines, industrials, and heavy equipment (UAL, DAL, CAT, CMI, DE, GE have staged a durable rally that is consistent with improving capex and travel demand narratives. If yields grind higher into CPI, the relative value may continue to favor these groups over hyper‑duration growth, particularly where pricing power and backlog visibility are strong. In Energy, the message is to discriminate: refiners and oilfield services (VLO, MPC, HAL enjoyed a favorable product margin setup, while solar (FSLR is trading to its own idiosyncratic cadence amid policy and supply‑chain uncertainties. Real Estate’s leadership remains concentrated in data‑center REITs (EQIX, DLR and specialized platforms (IRM, rather than broad office footprints, which remain structurally challenged.

On defensives, staples like WMT, COST, and PEP continue to offer ballast if CPI surprises hot and yields back up. Healthcare’s bifurcation suggests maintaining exposure through large‑cap innovators (LLY, AMGN, VRTX where pipeline and pricing drive earnings more than medical‑cost variance. In Financials, the bid in brokers (IBKR, money‑center banks (JPM, and markets‑exposed franchises (GS hints at robust trading and client activity if realized volatility stays elevated—an offset to duration sensitivity in rate‑exposed balance sheets.

Finally, a word on concentration. Monexa AI’s breadth work reiterates that mega‑cap technology remains a dominant determinant of index returns. Friday’s advance came even as AMZN fell (-5.55%) and GOOGL/GOOG slipped, underscoring how leadership within the tech complex has migrated toward semiconductors and AI hardware while platform ads grapple with regulatory and cyclical headwinds. For Monday, watch whether NVDA and peers can extend gains into CPI positioning; if they do, beta will travel well. If not, expect the rotation into cyclicals and select defensives to carry the baton.

Conclusion#

Morning Recap and Outlook#

The setup into Monday’s open is cautiously risk‑on but tactically fragile. According to Monexa AI, Friday’s breadth was robust, with ^SPX +1.97%, ^DJI +2.47%, ^IXIC +2.18%, and new records for the Dow and NYSE Composite. Overnight catalysts—Japan’s emphatic election result, rising U.S. yields into a heavy data week, European regulatory heat on META, and S&P Global’s more dour take on China property—tilt the balance toward selectivity rather than blanket risk adding.

For investors and analysts into the bell, the day’s action likely hinges on three levers. First, rates: if Treasury yields continue to drift higher before CPI and the delayed jobs report, duration‑sensitive growth should cede leadership to cyclicals and defensives. Second, flows: if systematic supply materializes on any S&P 500 slippage, it could sharpen intraday drawdowns; conversely, a steady bid would keep dealers on the back foot and allow Friday’s breadth to persist. Third, concentration: the AI complex—NVDA, AMD, AVGO, server peers like SMCI—still sets the tone for index beta; maintaining leadership through data risk is critical to sustaining the rally.

On balance, we would look for ongoing strength in industrials and travel, selective accumulation in data‑center REITs and staples as ballast, and disciplined risk management in volatile pockets of healthcare and software where idiosyncratic shocks have been frequent. We also note the unusual ^VIX print versus Friday’s rally and rely more on breadth and rates as cleaner signals into the open.

Key Takeaways#

Friday’s broad‑based rebound, confirmed by Monexa AI’s index closes and sector breadth, sets a constructive tone into Monday’s open, yet the path is data‑dependent with CPI and jobs looming. Overnight policy clarity from Japan is a tailwind, but higher U.S. yields and European regulatory pressure on META temper enthusiasm. Investors should lean into cyclicals with earnings visibility, keep ballast in staples and data‑center REITs, and respect concentration and flow risks around the AI complex. Selectivity and position sizing—not blanket beta—remain the edge this week.