Midday Market: Nasdaq slips, Dow rises as mega-caps diverge

Introduction#

Stocks split directionally into lunch on Thursday, October 30, 2025. According to Monexa AI intraday data, the S&P 500 (^SPX) is modestly lower by midday as weakness in a handful of mega-cap technology and internet names weighs on the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ekes out gains on strength in financials, select industrials, and defensives. The macro backdrop remains front and center after the Federal Reserve delivered a second consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut but paired it with hawkish guidance, and after the Bank of Japan’s policy update pressured the yen. Headlines around a U.S.–China tariff truce further reduced tail risk but await details before investors fully reprice trade-sensitive exposures. The fifth week of the U.S. government shutdown is also distorting the data landscape at the margin, creating what the Fed has called a “fog” for forecasting.

Investors opened to a risk-on/risk-off tug of war. The tone was set by a sharp post-earnings selloff in META and follow-through softness in MSFT, partially offset by strength in GOOGL and defensive gains across staples and certain healthcare bellwethers. While AI investment remains a unifying theme across Big Tech, the midday tape is rewarding companies that showed cleaner monetization pathways this quarter and penalizing those leaning more heavily into near-term capital intensity.

Market Overview#

Intraday Indices Table & Commentary#

According to Monexa AI, the S&P 500 is trading between an intraday low of 6,834.93 and a high of 6,880.75 after opening at 6,860.50. The Nasdaq Composite is underperforming, reflecting outsized weakness in select mega-cap technology and communication names and a broader giveback in semiconductors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is positive on the day as strength in banks and selected industrials offsets tech weakness. Volatility is easing into midday, with the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) down to 16.32, a decline of -3.55%, and the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (^RVX) off -0.82%.

Turnover is moderate. By midday, S&P 500 volume is tracking below recent averages, with 2.01 billion shares versus a 5.26 billion average pace, per Monexa AI. That softer tape liquidity is amplifying dispersion; single-stock headlines are moving names more than usual, particularly within Technology and Communication Services.

The primary intraday catalyst remains the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. The Fed reduced the target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% but pushed back on expectations for a rapid follow-on cut in December. Powell said it is prudent to slow down when visibility is low, given the data disruptions tied to the ongoing federal shutdown. This combination—a “hawkish cut”—is consistent with reporting from Reuters and analysis summarized by Charles Schwab. Overnight, the Bank of Japan’s policy communication pressured the yen and reinforced global rate-cut caution, contributing to early risk-off in growth stocks, as reported by Reuters.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Releases & Policy Updates#

The economic calendar is thinned and less reliable than usual, with the government shutdown in its fifth week and several agencies delaying or scaling back releases. Former Fed Governor Randy Kroszner described the Fed as “driving through a fog,” underscoring the challenge of accountability without a full slate of data, per CNBC. Within that context, the Fed’s second 25-basis-point cut since September aimed to extend the gentle easing campaign without reinforcing market assumptions of an aggressive path. Chair Powell explicitly cooled talk of an additional December cut, a message echoed across coverage by Reuters and the Financial Times’ policy reporting at FT.com.

Markets reacted in two stages. Into the morning, equities tried to fade the hawkish tone as investors leaned into areas levered to lower nominal rates—select real estate investment trusts (REITs) and refiners—while long-duration tech with heavy capex budgets underperformed. By midday, the split is pronounced: yield-sensitive pockets bid on the policy easing, but valuation-sensitive growth corrected where earnings visibility was more debated. This is consistent with Monexa AI’s sector rotation dashboard and VIX/RVX compression.

On the credit side, the policy mix supports a measured decline in front-end yields and reduces tail risk for highly levered cyclicals heading into year-end. However, given Powell’s emphasis on uncertainty and the data blackout, investors remain cautious about extrapolating too aggressive a rate path. That caution is also visible in the dollar’s firmness versus the yen post-BOJ and the bifurcation between growth and value factor returns, per Reuters.

Global/Geopolitical Developments#

Overnight headlines pointed to a de-escalation in U.S.–China trade tensions, including a tariff pause and partial rollback, removing a worst-case scenario for global risk assets. Reports also emphasized that many elements still require formalization before the market fully prices in durable relief, according to the Financial Times. The directional impact intraday is a modest bid to globally oriented industrials and select commodities, but without confirmation, investors are reluctant to chase beta.

The Bank of Japan’s update left the yen weaker, a move that tends to tighten financial conditions in parts of Asia while reinforcing the dollar’s bid. U.S. equities felt this through weaker risk appetite for long-duration growth and richly valued AI leaders at the open, before settling into a more selective pattern, consistent with Reuters global market coverage.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

Monexa AI’s sector dashboard shows Real Estate leading by midday, with a notable bid into data-center and healthcare REITs, while Utilities lag. Two important notes on methodology and timing: i) this sector table reflects Monexa AI’s latest intraday snapshot; ii) our heatmap of single-stock movers earlier in the session suggested Financials and Industrials were broadly positive, while Technology was modestly higher on selective software strength. The shift between those impressions and the table above likely reflects mid-morning reversals and timing differences across data sources. We prioritize the sector table for current status and use the heatmap to explain dispersion and catalysts.

Real Estate outperformance stands out. Data-center REITs are in focus after outsized demand signals for AI infrastructure, with Equinix EQIX and Digital Realty DLR advancing, per Monexa AI heatmaps. Healthcare REITs such as Ventas VTR and single-family rental platforms like Invitation Homes INVH also trade better, consistent with a lower-rates tilt and defensive carry. The downside exceptions include storage REITs like Extra Space EXR, underperforming as investors differentiate property types.

Technology is mixed beneath the headline. Mega-cap hardware and semis are a drag—NVDA and AVGO are lower—while selected software names such as ServiceNow NOW outperform on company-specific execution. The breadth challenge aligns with commentary that the VanEck Semiconductor ETF is stretched versus its 200-day moving average, a setup that preceded a sizeable correction in 2024; investors are risk-managing chip exposure as a result, according to Monexa AI’s technical monitors and sector commentary, and as echoed by coverage in Bloomberg.

Communication Services shows the widest internal divergence. META is down sharply following its earnings and capex outlook, while GOOGL and GOOG advance on a record quarter and signs of AI monetization across search and cloud, per Reuters. Traditional media names like Fox FOXA/FOX and entertainment giant Disney DIS are higher intraday, pointing to idiosyncratic catalysts rather than a sector-wide move.

Energy’s tone is positive and broad. Refiners such as Marathon Petroleum MPC and Phillips 66 PSX are firm, midstream like Williams WMB is bid, and exploration-and-production names including ConocoPhillips COP and Occidental OXY participate, while supermajors Exxon XOM and Chevron CVX are more muted. The breadth suggests the move is not concentrated in the largest constituents.

Consumer sectors split. Discretionary includes outsized losers like Chipotle CMG and eBay EBAY, while travel and leisure see gains in Carnival CCL and Royal Caribbean RCL. Staples are modestly higher, with Kimberly-Clark KMB and Clorox CLX up, offset by pressure in Altria MO and Hershey HSY. The pattern underscores a defensive tilt within consumer exposure, consistent with the rate and volatility backdrop.

Industrials display extremes rather than a trend. C.H. Robinson CHRW spikes on company-specific news flow, while EMCOR EME is sharply lower, with Trane TT and Huntington Ingalls HII firming, and Boeing BA weaker on aerospace-specific concerns. This is classic dispersion during macro transition points, where stock-picking dominates sector beta.

Basic Materials underperforms overall, but miners like Newmont NEM and specialty chemicals like Albemarle ALB are green, balancing weakness in steel (Nucor NUE and aggregates (Vulcan VMC.

Company-Specific Insights#

Midday Earnings or Key Movers#

The day’s narrative is dominated by Big Tech divergence. META is down roughly double digits intraday after reporting Q3 revenue growth alongside a one-time tax charge and substantially higher 2025–2026 capex plans focused on AI compute. According to Reuters and Meta’s investor materials, capex guidance for 2025 was lifted to $70–$72 billion, with 2026 expenses flagged as higher. Investors are treating the investment cycle as a near-term margin headwind. By contrast, GOOGL advances after reporting its first $100 billion quarter, with Google Cloud revenue up 34% year over year and advertising up about 12.6%, per Reuters. The market is rewarding clearer AI monetization through cloud and search while discounting longer-tailed AI capex build-outs with less immediate payback.

MSFT trades lower despite upbeat sell-side reactions to its cloud and AI commentary. Analyst notes highlighted by Monexa AI emphasize continued AI-driven demand through Azure and a multi-quarter capital deployment plan. The stock’s intraday decline adds to Nasdaq weakness given its heavy index weight. Apple AAPL is modestly higher ahead of its results after the close, with traders focused on early sell-through of iPhone 17 models and resilience in Services, according to Yahoo Finance and pre-earnings commentary tracked by Monexa AI.

Outside mega-cap tech, the earnings tape is busy. Eli Lilly LLY is up more than +4% intraday after raising full-year revenue and EPS guidance on the back of obesity and diabetes drug momentum; the company now sees revenue of $63.0–$63.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $23.00–$23.70, according to Monexa AI’s aggregation of company disclosures and Bloomberg estimates. Mastercard MA reported 17% revenue growth to $8.6 billion with adjusted EPS of $4.38, reflecting resilient consumer and cross-border spending and a 25% expansion in value-added services, per Monexa AI earnings tracker and company commentary. Comcast CMCSA beat on earnings but reported a 2.7% decline in revenue to $31.2 billion; shares are down more than -2% as wireless growth and theme park strength only partially offset broadband pressure, according to Monexa AI.

In Consumer Discretionary, Advance Auto Parts AAP beat on EPS and tightened full-year guidance but trades lower intraday as investors dissect the quality of comps and margins. Roblox RBLX sank more than -10% despite a bookings beat and record user metrics—bookings +70% year over year to $1.92 billion, daily active users +70% to 151.5 million, and engagement hours +91% to 39.6 billion—suggesting a “sell the news” reaction, per Monexa AI’s real-time feed. Align Technology ALGN rallied after better-than-expected results and upbeat commentary on clear aligner demand; the stock’s intraday pop aligns with pre-market reports of stronger volumes, as tracked by Monexa AI and industry coverage at Barron’s.

Healthcare showed notable bifurcation beyond LLY. Cardinal Health CAH is materially higher on company-specific catalysts, while Baxter BAX and Cigna CI are down double digits, underscoring stock-specific event risk within the group. In Industrials, C.H. Robinson CHRW surged on idiosyncratic drivers, while EMCOR EME fell sharply. These outliers are consistent with Monexa AI’s heatmap highlighting extreme intraday dispersion.

Crypto-adjacent equities are softer. Coinbase COIN trades lower into its results as cryptocurrencies slipped following Chair Powell’s pushback against a December cut, according to market coverage at Barron’s and Monexa AI price feeds.

Extended Analysis#

Intraday Shifts & Momentum#

From the opening bell to midday, the story is one of factor and sector rotation punctuated by idiosyncratic shocks. The immediate aftermath of the Fed decision fostered a bid for rate-sensitive exposures, while Chair Powell’s cautious tone around additional cuts tempered duration-driven rallies in long-duration growth assets. The dispersion is most obvious inside mega-cap tech: META and MSFT are acting as drags on the cap-weighted indices, whereas GOOGL is buoying Communication Services. That divergence translates mechanically into the Nasdaq’s underperformance and the Dow’s relative strength, a dynamic visible in Monexa AI’s intraday breadth and index tape.

Within Technology, the undercurrent is a re-rating of semiconductors and hardware after a long run. Several chip leaders have become extended relative to trend measures, and the sector is giving back ground intraday. This is not a blanket unwind; software platforms with clearer near-term monetization and less capex intensity are outperforming, as captured by gains in names like ServiceNow NOW. The message is that investors are discriminating between AI beneficiaries based on the immediacy and quality of cash-flow conversion.

Communication Services’ internal split is the most consequential single driver of index-level performance today. GOOGL is being rewarded for demonstrable AI monetization across search and cloud: Reuters reported Q3 revenue of $102.35 billion with Google Cloud up +34% to $15.16 billion and advertising up +12.6% to $74.18 billion, while capex was raised to support TPU and Vertex AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, META signaled a more back-loaded return profile for its AI spending, noting capex of $70–$72 billion for 2025 and higher expenses into 2026, alongside a one-time tax charge of roughly $16 billion that hit GAAP results, per Reuters. The market is pricing those differences in capital allocation and payoff timing with unusual clarity.

Energy’s intraday breadth speaks to a market willing to own cyclicality selectively. Refiners MPC and PSX benefit from spread dynamics and resilient demand signals, while upstream names COP and OXY participate without leadership from XOM/CVX. This has two implications: the move is durable if it remains diversified, and it could extend if rates ease at the front end without igniting recession fears.

In Real Estate, outperformance within data-center REITs—EQIX and DLR—is coherently tied to the AI infrastructure investment cycle. These assets are thus acting like “picks and shovels” for the AI buildout, capturing demand from hyperscalers and large enterprise IT spending even as certain AI-exposed equities in Technology correct. Healthcare property types like VTR and residential platforms like INVH layer in a defensiveness premium as well.

The consumer is increasingly barbelled. On one side, high-ticket dining and certain e-commerce names are experiencing sharp drawdowns tied to stock-specific catalysts and valuation sensitivity—CMG and EBAY. On the other, travel/leisure and auto aftermarket names like CCL, RCL, and LKQ exhibit persistent demand resilience. In Staples, the steady bid for KMB, CLX, PEP, KO, PG, and COST underscores the defensive ballast investors continue to seek as Big Tech dispersion increases.

Two cross-currents are worth emphasizing for positioning. First, the government shutdown is distorting the macro signal. With fewer and lower-quality prints, the Fed’s “fog” comment resonates; investors are more reliant on high-frequency market measures—volatility term structure, credit spreads, and dollar moves—to proxy macro conditions, as noted by CNBC and Reuters. Second, the AI capital cycle is now a spread trade inside Big Tech. The market is differentially rewarding firms that can convert AI infrastructure into revenue growth with less incremental capex per unit of output. Alphabet’s in-house TPU strategy and commercialization via Google Cloud and Search contrasts with Meta’s heavier external GPU procurement and multi-year data center build, per Reuters and Meta’s own commentary.

For active managers, this midday setup argues for tighter risk around crowded chip exposures and a willingness to rotate across factor and sector lines as visibility improves. The decline in the ^VIX to 16.32 and modest easing in ^RVX suggest optionality remains relatively inexpensive for hedging idiosyncratic earnings shocks, according to Monexa AI.

Conclusion#

Midday Recap & Afternoon Outlook#

By midday, the U.S. equity market is marked by selective risk-taking and sharp dispersion. The Nasdaq Composite is down -0.89% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up +0.33%, per Monexa AI. The S&P 500 sits -0.38% below the flatline, as investors digest a hawkish Fed cut, a BOJ-influenced dollar bid, and uneven Big Tech earnings. Volatility is lower, with the ^VIX at 16.32 (-3.55%), pointing to measured risk appetite even as single-stock moves remain large.

Three drivers define the tape. First, the Fed’s messaging narrowed the near-term cut path, guiding investors to avoid over-interpreting an incomplete macro signal during the shutdown. Second, the AI capital cycle is being repriced internally: GOOGL is rewarded for clear monetization in cloud and search while META is discounted for a heavier, longer-tailed capex curve. Third, sector rotation favors Real Estate, Energy, and defensives at midday, while Technology and Utilities lag on average, with wide internal dispersion.

Heading into the afternoon, investors are watching a few catalysts. Apple AAPL reports after the bell, with focus on iPhone 17 sell-through and Services momentum, per Yahoo Finance. Crypto beta around Coinbase COIN remains sensitive to rate expectations, and broader semiconductors could remain choppy given stretched technicals flagged in sector monitors. Finally, any incremental confirmation on U.S.–China tariff relief could support cyclicals and data-center REITs, though reports emphasize that details are still emerging, per the Financial Times.

Actionably, the midday setup argues for diversification across factor exposures, selective overweight to areas showing multi-name strength (payments, industrial operators, data-center REITs), and reduced concentration in idiosyncratic headline-risk names. The decline in volatility and below-average S&P 500 turnover by midday underscore the importance of liquidity discipline into the close, particularly with event risk clustered around mega-cap earnings.

Key Takeaways#

The market is sending a clear message at midday: monetize AI now, or prepare to be discounted until proof arrives. A hawkish Fed cut has curbed the most aggressive easing bets while still supporting rate-sensitive pockets. Rotation is real but not monolithic; dispersion is high within and across sectors. According to Monexa AI, the balance of evidence points to a cautiously constructive backdrop with ample stock-picking opportunity—and a premium on risk management as earnings season continues.