Antero Resources free cash flow surprised at $747.36 million in FY2024 while the company carried $4.03 billion of net debt — a straight‑forward cash-versus-debt tension that frames capital‑allocation choices for management and investors.
Market participants are parsing that trade-off with AR trading at $32.35 and a market capitalization of $9.99 billion; today's intraday move was -0.15% on the quoted print (price and market cap from Monexa AI.
Key developments and financial snapshot — Antero Resources revenue forecast#
Antero's most recent filings show FY2024 revenue of $4.33 billion and EBITDA of $859.55 million, reflecting a company operating with materially lower reported operating income than in prior years (Monexa AI. The FY2024 income statement lists net income of $57.23 million while an alternate cash‑flow table shows net income of $93.7 million for the same period; we flag this inconsistency and, for line‑item comparability, prioritize the income‑statement net income as the canonical reported figure from the FY2024 filing (Monexa AI.
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Margins show large year‑over‑year swings: FY2024 gross‑profit ratio is listed at +92.46% and the FY2024 EBITDA margin at +19.87% versus historical EBITDA margin of +28.72% in 2023 — the jump/dip pattern merits scrutiny in subsequent filings and notes (Monexa AI. The company also reports diluted EPS and a quoted EPS used in market pricing: EPS $1.53 and a computed trailing PE of 21.14x on the current price (see valuation section for reconciliation) (Monexa AI.
Earnings, cash flow and capital allocation — Antero Resources free cash flow#
Cash‑flow dynamics are the clearest read on strategy: Antero reported net cash provided by operating activities of $849.29 million and free cash flow of $747.36 million in FY2024, with capital expenditure of -$101.92 million, indicating low maintenance capex relative to operating cash generation (Monexa AI. The cash‑flow statement also shows no dividends paid and no share repurchases in 2024, a material shift from prior years when buybacks were significant (common stock repurchases were -$873.74M in 2022) (Monexa AI.
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Financing moves in 2024 reduced leverage modestly: total debt stands at $4.03 billion with long‑term debt at $3.54 billion, down from a higher debt profile in 2023 (Monexa AI. The company posted net cash used/provided by financing activities of -$135.13 million in 2024, consistent with modest debt paydown and restrained shareholder returns (Monexa AI.
Valuation, liquidity and analyst estimates — AR stock fundamentals#
Valuation metrics show mixed signals. The quote block lists a trailing PE of 21.14x (price $32.35, EPS $1.53) while the fundamentals TTM PE field shows 39.96x — we prioritize the market‑price computation (32.35 / 1.53) and treat the TTM PE discrepancy as a dataset inconsistency to be reconciled with company filings (Monexa AI. Enterprise multiple is EV/EBITDA 9.81x and net‑debt/EBITDA is +2.54x on reported TTM metrics (Monexa AI.
Liquidity is a watch item: the TTM current ratio is 0.3x, signaling tight near‑term liquidity headroom relative to current liabilities; this underlines why operating cash and FCF are central to capital allocation choices (Monexa AI. Forward consensus is modest: analysts’ 2025 estimated EPS (average) is $2.66 on estimated revenue $5.41B, implying materially different forward multiples versus trailing metrics (Monexa AI.
Earnings‑season signals matter: Antero recorded recent quarterly surprises (e.g., 2025‑07‑30 actual $0.35 vs. estimate $0.48; 2025‑04‑30 actual $0.78 vs. estimate $0.83) — those beats/misses have been mixed and should be read alongside guidance and cash flow, not EPS alone (Monexa AI.
Featured question: How sustainable is Antero Resources' free cash flow?#
Antero’s FY2024 free cash flow of $747.36M, driven by $849.29M of operating cash and low capex (-$101.92M), appears sustainable in the near term but is balanced against $4.03B of net debt and a net‑debt/EBITDA of +2.54x; continued FCF generation is the key determinant of deleveraging or returning capital to shareholders.
Supporting evidence: FY2024 FCF and operating cash figures are reported directly in the company cash‑flow table (Monexa AI. History shows much larger FCF (FY2022 $2.89B) that funded heavy repurchases then; the 2024 pause in buybacks (and dividends at zero) implies management is prioritizing balance‑sheet repair or preserving optionality (Monexa AI.
Investor takeaway: track sequential FCF, guidance language on capital allocation, and quarterly changes in net debt. With a low current ratio (0.3x) and modest headroom, operating cash conversion remains the decisive variable for sustainability (Monexa AI.
Competitive landscape and sector trends#
Antero operates in a natural‑gas and midstream‑adjacent environment where demand drivers include domestic power generation, LNG exports and seasonality; macro uncertainty — from sticky inflation to trade policy — affects demand and margins (see Capital Economics and J.P. Morgan for macro context) (Capital Economics, J.P. Morgan Insights.
Energy companies that convert commodity strength into cash flow demonstrate resilience; Antero’s comparative strength is cash‑conversion, but its relative competitiveness will hinge on production cost, midstream access and pricing exposure versus peers (data point comparisons should be derived from peer filings and market reports). Analysts and investors will be watching whether secular demand drivers (e.g., power demand trends) sustain realized gas prices for producers like Antero.
On market breadth, recent macro and earnings cycles show concentration risk in broader markets (technology leaders driving index moves), which underscores the value of asset‑level cash flows in energy names rather than headline EPS volatility in other sectors (Forbes.
Management execution, risks and strategic implications#
Capital allocation has shifted from heavy repurchases in 2022 to a no‑buyback stance in 2024, consistent with debt reduction and a conservative liquidity posture; that shift is visible in the cash‑flow and financing tables (Monexa AI. Management’s ability to translate FCF into sustained deleveraging or eventual shareholder distributions will be the principal governance metric for investors to monitor.
Key risks include dataset inconsistencies (noted above on net income and PPE line items), commodity price volatility, and a thin current ratio that elevates short‑term liquidity risk; conversely, durable FCF generation and an improving net‑debt trajectory are constructive tactical signals when validated quarter‑to‑quarter (Monexa AI.
Key takeaways — what this means for investors
- Antero produced $747.36M of free cash flow in FY2024 but carries $4.03B of net debt — the company is at a capital‑allocation inflection where deleveraging has priority (Monexa AI.
- Valuation multiples vary by measure: market price implies 21.14x trailing PE while EV/EBITDA is 9.81x and net‑debt/EBITDA is +2.54x — watch which multiple the market applies as guidance and FCF trend evolve (Monexa AI.
- Liquidity is tight (current ratio 0.3x); sustained operating cash and low capex are essential to avoid constrained financing options (Monexa AI.
Monitor next quarterly report and management commentary for guidance on capital allocation and any reconciliation of the noted dataset discrepancies (net income and PP&E swings). For company filings and numerical detail, see the underlying tables and source data at Monexa AI.